Thoughts on Ethereum???

"In the long run, the price of ETH should hold a relationship with the value that developers/users get from using the network. Given there is a limited amount of computation that can theoretically be done on the network, the developers/users that get the most value from using the network will be the ones taking up the transaction volume that the network can handle. As the complexity/value of using the blockchain increases, the developers/users will need ETH and will outbid each other to get ETH to the point where they still get a sufficient return on their capital from using the blockchain.

On the other side, the miners are generally providing a commodity service and should bid each other down so the price of gas is just enough to compensate them for some return on the capital they put up to run their node. So theoretically, the cost (in ETH) to perform a transaction should trend with the complexity of the transaction.

Since the running a node is a commodity (implies efficient costs) and the real users of ETH will be willing to pay more to use the blockchain as they find more valuable uses, the price of ETH should trend with the value of moving certain transactions/functions to the blockchain.

So I feel comfortable thinking of ETH's market cap based on the following simplified framework: the total future value that people are willing to pay to move certain transactions/functions to the blockchain multiplied by some probability we actually get there. I would be interested in hearing peoples' thoughts on quantifying these two variables based on (1) today's scale in terms of transaction capacity and (2) the blue sky scenario where Ethereum successfully achieves scalability."

Looking forward to hearing your opinion on the above thought process.