RE: Ethereum (ETH) Forecast 4.feb.18
Thanks for doing this!
So I've been thinking, based on your charts and other things I've read/know/observed I think the below 2 scenarios could happen that would fulfill most of the chart predictions:
Scenario One:
BTC corrects lower and finishes around mid Feb and then bounces back up and consolidates around the $10,500 area; which is based on Haejin saying that is a support area.
ETH will take longer to correct to the $650-700 area, but will happen whilst BTC consolidates. (This will fulfill the ETH/BTC prediction where the ratio will go lower to around 0.06 area; your wave 1 to wave 2).
When ETH is done correcting (around early March) it'll shoot back up, just like how BTC does when BTC finishes correcting. (which will then fulfill the ETH/BTC rising ratio; your wave 2 to wave 3).
Thereafter, Haejin (and some other TA) are saying BTC will rise to $35-50k and ETH/BTC ratio will rise to 0.2-0.35 area (Some other TA's ratio is near to your 0.35 figure too). This will then give an ETH figure in the area of $11.68k (average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.275 of average BTC figure of $35k/$50k). Quite a few TAs have said ETH can go to $10k "easily"..I'm also starting to see higher figures than that...and so $11.68k sounds like its not hard to achieve and could possibly go beyond that. Also given that Vitalik is now spending more time on ETH development it also makes that figure quite realistic.
If this scenario does play out it will be very interesting...because it kind of means BTC is waiting for ETH to finish correct before it goes up....so the tables have turned?....
Or perhaps we'll just get a much more simple scenario (scenario two) where ETH will just continue to follow BTC and ignore its own apex. But suppose worse case is ETH is going opposite direction to BTC...that would be possible as it happened before...but wouldn't makes sense as it seems to be quite strong lately.
Scenario Two
1: BTC corrects lower to around $7,000.
Then ETH should follow also and dip to that $650 area (which will sort of fulfill TA's expectation that ETH is due to fall more).
They will then both start rising with ETH rising relatively faster. (This will fulfill the rising ETH/BTC ratio).
I think both your scenarios are valid for now.
I expect very volatile prices to both BTC and ETH through 2018. The new year dip is kind of a tradition, and leaning towards history we should be all bulls by mid february.
I expect BTC to go to $14k, then consolidate to around $10k before going 3x to about $31k.
It would not be unnatural for ETH to go to $10k or more in such a bullmarket.
An ETH to BTC price of 0.35 would need a bear news for btc and bull news for ethereum. My thoughts is this could happen as Lightning network is rushed to main chain. Devs would like to be on testnet a while more, but users want the advantages now, so I almost expect some errors to happen.
TA is not finite, and need to be updated with new price moves as we go.
Re "An ETH to BTC price of 0.35 would need a bear news"...or it could simply just mean ETH has more good news and so not necessarily that BTC has bear news?...one "experienced" guy I saw online (hes been in this since 2012/13) said first half year is when altcoins do better whilst second half is BTC)...so that could be it?...tbh...as long the long term trend is bullish for the whole market then that would be good enough. Although more in particular for ETH...as thats where my investment is lol.
Thanks again :)
That's also kind of a tradition with alts doing better early in the year, and Bitcoin raving later. Will be interesting to see if it holds true in 2018 with all the new hands coming to market.
Are you all in on Ethereum? I am diversified with about 5% of total in ETH, and 35% in BTC now.
I was initially in btc and eth (50-50)..then after a week or so i learmt more n more about eth and thought its got a much better future. Just to name a few things, smart contracts which could potential cause a massive disruption to the world economy. Goldman sachs even named it one of the 8 trends thats about to change the world. Then you got vitalik who is so talented and devoted.
So after a week or so, having made a small profit in btc i moved everything to eth. I know i shpuldnt put everything in one basket but nm. Also i figured that say btc got to $120k then thats about a 20fold increase from when i bought it ($6k). But i think eth can do more than 20fold increase from $450 average price that i got in..i.e. to more than $9k.
I havent considered other coins because only btc and eth are available as a tracker on the stockholm nasdaq exchange, i.e. i havent bought eth/btc with wallets...as at the time i didnt have the time to look into how i could buy cryptos with wallets and then how to keep it safe and all as i kept reading about potential hacks. I think i would have missed those good eth prices (in early/mid nov) had i spent all that time looking at how to buy with a wallett. But i may look into it soon and consider buying other coins.
I would consider piling up some BTC too. A lot of coins have smart contracts, Eth being the first, but not the only.
No need to sit in a lot of coins if not trading actively, but all eggs in one basket is unvise, even though the basket seem solid :)
I assume you can move those funds off stockholm exchange and into a wallet?
I like to have full control over my private keys, both for safety and profits, as airdrops and forks are not necessarily supported by the exchanges. And I don't like throwing away free money :)
Thanks for your advice. I'll defo have to look into doing that. Just like I say..haven't had the time to look into using wallets etc etc...and until I'm 100% sure of what I'm doing is correct and safe I won't do anything yet.
So when did you actually join the world of cryptos?
I mined some bitcoins with the office pc back in 2011, but found $2 a month not worth it, and forgot about it all.
Next thing I found the wallet file in July 2017, just in the dip, and it was $6k worth! I have never felt more lucky.
Since then I have gained experience and learned something new every day about this new world.
Wow! Now thats a kind of good example of HODL! I hope you've still got them! Apparently Lily Allen was offered a few BTC to do some sort of online concert a few years ago but rejected...had she done it it would be worth over $1bn apparently...oh well lol...not like she ain't rich already.