ETHEREUM analysis #12 - The "We're back to normal" blow off phase.
Hi guys & girls, I swear I hate being the only negative one here but I'm just trying to bring a second opinion so you can see both sides of the coin.
So I went to google and I typed 'stages of a bubble', what I found was the image I shared below and other very similar ones, all over the web. So I put it next to the current one day candles chart for ETH/BTC from bittrex. Does it look similar? Do you think is just coincidence?
MAIN STAGES OF A BUBBLE:
Did you buy in this dip? Be aware of the Bull trap.
1 DAY & 1 WEEK CANDLES ETH/BTC (BITTREX):
Even if I didn't know nothing about cryptos or bubbles, by looking at the charts below I would still think we're inside a bear channel.
Conclusion:
I think that the bull trap has worked out well cause we can see a lot of people have actually bought that dip. I expect to break up that down trend channel for a bit so everybody think we are 'returning to normal' which will prove the bull trap to be true. After that I expect the smart investors to sell off till we're back down to around 0.050 BTC
What do you think?
Seriously I hope you are right. I prayed that you are right. I sold off 90% of my ethereum during the downturn and feeling shit for the past few days when eth turned north. Keeping a war chest to buy eth at 0.05BTC. It takes time but I have plenty of time to wait it out.
It's fine. If you bought ETH long ago it's ok if you sold in this dip. Just wait it out and buy after the 80% correction. It happens in every bubble. Wait & see :)
Yes, exactly right. There's no reason for ETH to cost as much as it does. Nothing but FOMO and bubble-hype fueling it. And with all the ICO madness, platforms will be launched on different chains and all the investors will leave, followed by the panic sellers. I'll buy ETH when it's at a reasonable $5.00, which should be sometime this year.
Agreed, at this point it doesn't take a lot of brains to see what's going on. But we still have all these people on youtube saying is going up, is going up! I just feel bad for the new people that will buy now following these types of advise. That's the reason I'm sharing these charts here.
Interesting post. You have point and your analysis seems valid. I don't usually trade ETHBTC, but it is similar to ETHUSD which is the chart I look at. I think we are at an inflexion point. IF it breaks higher, above the bear channel you've drawn, and holds above that trendline, then the 'spell' is broken. Nonetheless, it's been quite the run, and I am thinking a bit exhausted with some retracement due. Let's see how it plays out tomorrow that'll give you more clues -cheers
Hi thanks for the comment I really appreciate it. I personally sold all my ETH (and other alts) for bitcoin 2 weeks ago, And I sold 50% of my bitcoin a few days ago. I couldn't be happier with the profits & I still have 50% of the bitcoin ready to sell anytime :)
I have to say I agree. Sounds like a lot of people in the cryptoverse agree as well. I personally cashed out of ETH yesterday, but I'm still bullish on BTC, STEEM, and a few other strong cryptos. Actually looking forward to being able to get some ETH for cheap!
Same here. We should be able to buy ETH very cheap, I would say in a few months we will touch bottom. About people agreeing... I'm not so sure about that, people is still promoting the 'hodle' movement. The sad part is that people who have just bought ETH now will hodl for as long as they can then sell taking a huge loss.
Very interesting, I have already sold all of my ETH around mid 300s.
I like Ethereum but it's way overvauled in the short term. A big sell off will be here in the next couple of months!
Hi thanks for the comment :) I think so too.