BTC Bubble has popped and ETH is about to reach it's true worth

in #ethereum7 years ago

3 months ago when ETH was well under $1000, I predicted a $10,000+ price per ETH in 2018. A lot of people saw that and thought my prediction was the lunatic fringe. The basis of my prediction was a model based around Metcalfe's law which has been the most successful model to date for predicting the price of ETH.

Today we see the Bitcoin bubble has popped and Bitcoin dominance has diminished greatly. We also see Ethereum peaked out at around $2000 in South Korea which is far from the $10,000 + I predicted for 2018. At the same time Bitcoin peaked out at $20,000 while I predicted around $18,000, and now I think Bitcoin is approaching it's true worth. At the same time I still see Ethereum as under valued.

What is going on?

Ethereum price in my opinion will rise once the scaling solutions are implemented. This is because Metcalfe's law requires scalability more than anything else. Ethereum has the brain power in developers, has the apps, has the demand for growth, but does not yet have the capacity to meet that demand. In other words, Ethereum developers can't keep up with the rate of growth until these features are implemented:

  • Sharding.
  • Hybrid POS.

In my opinion when we see sharing implemented we will see a spike in price to over $5000 if not higher. There will be nothing technical holding back usage at that point. At the same time POS will lock a lot of tokens up and also make things more efficient. All of these improvements I expect to be implemented in 2018.

My prediction still stands: ETH at $10,000+ in 2018. This to be expected after scalability improvements implemented.
This is not investment advice. I will be holding ETH but do not recommend readers take any action.

References

  1. https://steemit.com/crypto-news/@dana-edwards/according-to-metcalfe-s-law-ethereum-is-under-valued-while-bitcoin-is-in-a-bubble
  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7um1c3/metcalfs_law_has_97_correlation_to_ethusd_since/
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Definitely will be an interesting year. My thoughts on ETH improving their scalability will cause grief for all those that are running on it as they will have to alllll change their programming. I'm hoping that it will simply be easier to hop on EOS :)

Steem has a high chance being over $50 this year once the SMTs, Communities and HF #20 get deployed successfully. Steem is starting to go viral. Look at the data. I think we'll see a Steem app other than Steemit be even bigger, which would create heavy demand for Steem coin.

Steem around 50$. This is a fantasy. I hope will be true :)

Metcalfe's law indicates Steem is very much undervalued. I think it's only a matter of time with Steem before $100. The only problem with Steem is lack of privacy or it would be perfect for a 5-10 year hold.

I think it's only a matter of time with Steem before $100.

Exactly what I have been saying to everyone for the past couple of months. Just hope it doesn't come to quickly, so we can get some cheap STEEM and stack some more.

I don't see Steemit wallet's being open to the public that big of an issue tho. Why do you think it's that problematic?

It depends on factors. Where do you live? What kind of account do you have? And more. So while I cannot say 100% for every Steem account that this will matter I can say for certain for some account holders it matters a lot.

It's not safe in most cultures in most parts of this world to flaunt wealth. It's definitely not safe in the US/UK to do it. It may be safe in places like Japan and some parts of Asia. So it depends.

I think the issue is significant enough to hinder adoption by deep pocked westerners. I think in Asia it will not matter so much.

I can see that being a steemit superstar and flashing your wealth can e problematic in some parts of the world but people who care about that can stay annonymus.

No one is forcing them to put their public info here or reveal their identity.

Yes, in my opinion also Steem is undervalued, let's hope for the great future for Steem, what is you opinion about the price of Steem by end of 2018.

Stay Blessed.

I'll bet you 5 trillion Steem that eth won't hit 3k in 2018.

That's a very bold prediction.

hmmmm... do you have 5 trillion Steem to back that up? Tempted... hahahaha :-)

ETH to $10,000 in 2018. I could not agree more. ETH has everything going for it. Ethereum will flip BTC soon. I like NEO and EOS too. NEO has interesting apps and ICOs now with a different focus and structure than ETH.

One question

"You said Etherum will flip BTC soon"

Take his place with market cap invest or just Etherum will be nr.1?

"Flip" means take #1 Crypto in market cap. Number of outstanding coins x market price = market cap.

I didn't know. Ok!

Mr Nerayoff said(ethereum co-founder): "What you're seeing with ethereum is exponential increase in the number of projects — there are billions of dollars being poured into the ecosystem right now — maybe 10 times more projects this year than last year, which could easily lead to a doubling, probably a tripling in price by the end of the year.”

At least $3,000 but as @dana-edwards pointed out POS and Sharding on the test net and will go live this year. The FOMO leading up to staking will be insane. Just wait $10,000 in 2018. People thought I was nuts 2 years ago going around saying ETH would be over $200 now when it was around $6.

Bitcoins have seen a significant growth in its market capitalization in the last five years
of its whereas Ether’s price has appreciated 10 times more than Bitcoin over the last year alone,
making it the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Ether is slowly being
introduced into cryptocurrency exchanges, and is expected to achieve a common ground with
Bitcoin in the near future.
However, Bitcoin is expected to remain the dominant currency, whereas Ethereum has greater opportunity for growth due to its applicability. It is unlikely, however, for Ether to experience a higher price trajectory in the near future as its technology is largely unproven and has yet to improve significantly before it achieves stability and mainstream adoption. If Ether does manage to bring out a revolution in the adoption of smart contracts, then price trend is expected to increase significantly🙂

I agree with you that THE Strong Currency has huge projects and evidence that they were not affected by this sharp decline of Market Cap . # ETH TO 10000$ IN 2018

Corrections are good. People who sell allow new people to buy in for cheaper deals. These new people, some will be inclined to hold for at least a year to avoid short term cap gains. Others will just be getting into crypto. Crypto seems to grow in waves.

Let the current wave of emotional speculators do their thing while new long term investors take their place.

Your words are logical and have some kind of wisdom

I am not as sagacious as you may believe. Take multiple opinions.


10K I sure HOPE!

Agreed. We may not know for another 10 years what all this new tech can really do

I bought 1 Etherum in 2017 and it would be incredibly nice to see how it will crosses the $ 1500 barrier, first. If half of prophecy is fulfilled, I will be so glad! @dana-edwards

In Asia it already has crossed $1500. In terms of Metcalfe's law it is worth more than that theoretically but in terms of being able to scale I think that is what holds it back. So we will see $1500 literally at any time (could happen tomorrow in fact) but we will not see $3000-5000 until certain things happen regarding sharding whether it be an announcement or a milestone accomplished.

True worth? both BTC and ETH have months with a very similar graphic going up and down, basically a copy/paste. If ETH go to $10,000, then BTC will go to $100,000.

waterfox_2018-02-03_08-40-02.png

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