ETH/USD - Same Old, Same Old?

That familiar pattern of an ABC up, then a 12345 down seems to be happening again, but I wonder if it's weaker this time.

If the price is currently moving in wave 5 of a 12345 down, then we can expect wave 5 to take the price down more. If wave 5 ends up around 200% of wave 1 like it did in the previous iteration of the ABC up 12345 down pattern, then it will bring the price to around $400.

As we've seen with the two previous iterations of the ABC up 12345 down pattern, the end of the pattern has been 10-11% lower than the start. If the above assumptions are correct, the end of the current iteration will only be 1% lower than the start.