Long opportunity: What are the chances of an ETH breakout?
What do you think is the chance of ETH breaking out of its current short term trend that has been forming since the ATH was achieved in the mid of june.
There is currently the chance for 4:1 long to short risk reward ratio. We expect the price to move towards $400 if the downtrend is breached and learn fairly quickly if not when the price moves below $190 with a new support around $160.
As such if we believe that ETH will break out with a likelihood above 25% this trade will be profitable.
We only have to make trades when we are confident, as such my suggestion is to pull the trigger if you think ETH will break out with a 40+% likelihood.
I am not so sure that is the case because bitcoin is in a very clear bear trend and I think the overall market forces may be more important than the individual coin.
Good luck!
Update: It looks like the uptrend has not held and as such this is not a viable opportunity any more. It looks now that ETH is going towards 100ish
need to clear $244 level first, then i think of another level,,$400 is still far, but speed of eth may clear that distance in hurry, but it need to get started first , lets see when it starts.
Ethereum still has a ton of issues to resolve in terms of scalability (though not as many as Bitcoin). Perhaps we'll see some positive movement when the Raiden Network as well as Metropolis is introduced.
No release date on Metro or Raiden?
As for as I know no there aren't but I'm guessing it's later this year into next year.
@knircky ETH will definitely break out in the positive sense, UPVOTE
This is good news
Maybe needs more time to turn around. :D
That is an interesting way to think about the numbers.
The risk and reward are worth it to me to buy between $160 and $200.The short term noise in the markets looks like buying opportunity.
Not a bad idea being the risk-reward ratio on it. I'm sitting on the sidelines though as the current price action does not entice me. I'd like to see a test of the support (the stop line) and then buy in there, if it gets down there.
yea i agree. it feels the market is still deciding where it wants to go
High risks, high rewards. Every crypto is a risk but getting a good analysis can help with predicting a bit.
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@knircky - there is no way for at least 2 years more that any other currency than bitcoin can be clear trend. Just because 80% of the exchange market is forcing it as main conversion towards cash (USD, EUR, GBP, etc.). Also one of the main reason why Japan recently added tax governmental rule on bitcoin trading/payments in the country.
Just my personal opinion,
Luci