ETH update 02.01.19

in eth •  18 days ago

First of all, I wish you all a pleasant and healthy new year. Let's continue to be patient and stay positive, even if it turns out that 2019 might only be the year of accumulation phase (and not the next bull market).

I will continue to analyze the crypto markets and some indices, whenever a good opportunity arises.

I think ETH is showing us the pattern, that BTC will develop too.

ETH is very likely to show one more leg down, before going up:

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click to enlarge

And BTC is starting to form this pattern as well. So the correction is likely not over yet.

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If you think this to be useful information:
DQmRhDtjokAZnGKi4QwheqksKTFo6m4fsjMYsNNrsitC1xk.gif
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Feel free to use and share my charts, but please mention me, @ew-and-patterns as the author. Otherwise it is considered plagiarism and I will flag you and advise my friends to do the same.
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Please consider leaving a comment, like or resteem, if this post entertained you or helped you see things differently...

Have a nice day :-)

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I think ETH could be a good currency while BTC remains a store of value. The economics will balance things out over time as ETH is much faster to transact and confirm.

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ETH developers will have to fix their scaling first or they will not survive in the long run. ETH is the most clogged blockchain of them all. At this moment there are 48000 transactions waiting to be confirmed...

What factors would help us determine whether this leg down will be an ABC, WXY, or leg C of some sort of triangle?

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That is impossible to tell right now, but it cannot be a triangle in wave 2. If we see a triangle then my labeling 1-2 is wrong and it must be an ABC instead.
It looks like a 3-3 correction, so it can morph into 3-3-3 (WXY) or 3-3-5 (ABC). It is not important to know which one it will be, because the targets are approx. the same. 3-3-3 is a little more rare than 3-3-5.

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Thanks for the explanation. It really clears things up. I searched up the rules about triangles in the Prechter's book. Triangles can occur in the second wave but are extremely rare.
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I disagree. I don't know why everyone reads Prechter. According to the ruleset I learned it is impossible.

He says extremely rare though meaning <0.3%. That is not a probability to bet your money on.

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What books or resources would you recommend for Elliott Waves?

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I have learned it from products of German experts, which probably would not help you at all.
I started with a simplified version (book on general ruleset with exceptions) and worked my way through 10h videos of complex corrections explained. Then I started falsifying so-called youtube experts for internalizing the ruleset. Because if you know where others make mistakes, your counting skills increase a lot.