Disaster looming for the worlds most dangerous dam.

I wrote an article the other day about the Kariba Dam saying it was the second most dangerous dam in the world. I was asked by @blanchy which dam was worse than Kariba. The dam that is at number one is the Mosul Dam in Iraq.

I have read up quite a bit about this and find it fascinating how people carry on living their lives believing the propoganda that everything is all ok. If we dig a little deeper though we realise that this one has a limited fuse and will go at some point. It is that bad and I will explain why when it happens it will be 1000 times worse than hurricane Katrina.

<img src""/>
The site was chosen as the Tigris river flows here. Not much thought went into this as the ground where the dam was built is unstable and shifts regularly. The lake behind the dam wall is a massive 50 Km long and is fed by the Tigris river.

Quite early on it was picked up that they would have some issues with the shifting land and grouting with cement was used to patch up any holes. This turned into a regular occurence and monthly grouting happened. This is not great news for a fairly modern dam.

During the latest troubles in Iraq the Islamic State Group captured the dam and held it for a few weeks. The Americans managed to wrestle it away from the militiants and
much needed grouting carried on. The problem was it was partial grouting as the concrete factory was still under Islamic State control.

The dam is at a point now of weekly grouting and is slowly getting worse. An Italian engineering firm has been assisting but experts believe it is only a matter of time. The ground underneath the wall in the foundations now has pockets and has been severely weakened.

There has been conflicting reports by the government recently. The enviroment minister has released a report saying that the dam is as safe as any other dam in the world giving it a 1 in a 1000 chance of collapse. I would definetely take him up on those odds if he was a bookie by the way. The Presidents office in the meantime has updated the evacuation proposal for the city of Mosul. If it was so safe why was this necessary?

What would happen if the dam collapsed tomorrow? Firstly you have a 50 km lake plus the Tigris river feeding it. The dam wall is nearly 100 m high so a huge wave will be forced down under high pressure. Experts predict that Mosul would be wiped off the map and flooding will go as far as Baghdad which is 340 km away.

Millions of people will be killed and millions will be displaced.This is not a time bomb that may happen but it is a time bomb that is already ticking. The solution is to build another dam further down river, but how long will that take? They don't have a few years to do this and unfortunately the world is rather quiet about this one.

Image source bbcnews.com,abcnews.go.com and paulthepoke.com