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RE: ⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies, Predictions & Bet of the week (Gameweek 30) ⚽️
You fancy Manchester united beat Liverpool??? Wow that's huge, I'm definitely looking forward to that match.
Sometimes my own model surprises me! The fact is, if this were based on shot stats alone, Liverpool would edge it. However, we can't ignore United's incredible defensive record at home, conceding only 6 goals in 14 matches!
A draw is also a likely result, as the last 4 H2H have finished either 0-0 or 1-1.
I think the first goal is crucial:
Scenario A) If United score first they will sit very deep and make it difficult even for Liverpool to create a chance. The most likely score here is no more goals, and it finishes 1-0.
Scenario B) If Liverpool score first United will have to open up, and with Liverpool's pace up front, and ability to get in behind, this could finish 0-2, 0-3, 1-3... If United withstand the pressure and get a goal back of their own, they can revert to their normal shape and it most likely finishes 1-1.
I'm actually a Liverpool fan myself, so I'm hoping we get the first goal. It'll make for a more exciting match for the neutrals too!
Your model was correct. Nice call.
Regarding the other bets you've placed I like Newcastle +0
Thanks! Liverpool may have been a bit unlucky not to win a penalty, but it was always going to be difficult to come back from 2-0 in the second half at Old Trafford.
2-0 Newcastle 52', so going well so far :)
3-0 57' :-)