⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 36) ⚽️
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | Stoke | 2.71 | 0.74 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| Burnley | Brighton | 1.23 | 0.85 | 2.08 | 0.38 |
| Crystal Palace | Leicester | 1.33 | 1.29 | 2.62 | 0.05 |
| Huddersfield | Everton | 1.16 | 1.13 | 2.28 | 0.03 |
| Newcastle | West Brom | 1.33 | 0.86 | 2.19 | 0.47 |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | 1.37 | 1.13 | 2.51 | 0.24 |
| Swansea | Chelsea | 0.85 | 1.52 | 2.37 | -0.66 |
| West Ham | Man City | 0.84 | 2.31 | 3.15 | -1.46 |
| Man United | Arsenal | 1.69 | 1.05 | 2.74 | 0.63 |
| Tottenham | Watford | 2.20 | 0.80 | 3.00 | 1.40 |
Summary
- Liverpool are the banker of the week with a GS value of 1.98 (word of caution: They will rest players this week, and depending on who, could affect this banker status!)
- Huddersfield vs Everton looks a pretty tight game with a GS value of just 0.03
Bet of the week
TBC (a couple hours before first KO if I finally decide on a pick)
Bet of the week running total:
| Bets | Won | Push | Lost | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -0.95 |
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
Swansea +1
West Ham +1.5
Arsenal +1.25
Watford +2.25
Bournemouth +0.75
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
and
keep up the work man! Been smashing the results as of late!
Thanks @kryptocek! Will most likely post some picks today :).
Liverpool draw. 😢
Yep, it was disappointing from them, but perhaps understandable given the crucial CL semi final coming up on Wednesday. The team itself wasn't too bad, but in hindsight I think the players subconsciously had the CL game on their mind, and were being careful to avoid injury.
This post has received a 8.77 % upvote from @boomerang.
I noticed that all the matches are expected to end with under 2.5 goals, I don't think it would be possible especially with Manchester City hoping to break a couple of records I expects their match to produce plenty Goals.
Yes, it's unlikely all will finish unders but the predictions are simply based on most probable score.
My advice is if you want to use these expectancies to predict "Overs", use the Tot G column, and anything that is above 2.5 is a likely overs pick. So for example this week's likely overs games are:
Hope that helps :).
Yes, it does
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