Why you should NOT buy EOS on the first ICO!
Hi!
First of all i LOVE steemit BTS and are very excited about Eos.
But!
The crowdfund (ICO) could end in a disaster for you.
Why?
Lets make some examples:
Lets imagine i want to buy EOS for 10 ETH!
a* (b\c)
this is the Formular how it will be distributed to us.
a = Total ETH contributed by an authorized purchaser during the period. = 10 ETH in our example
b = Total number of EOS Tokens available for distribution in the period. = In this first Periode its 200.000.000 Eos (200Mio)
c = Total ETH contributed by all authorized purchasers during the period = We will do 4 example calculations, with 100, 300, 500 and yes even with 1000 Mio$ worth of ETH.
So again:
a: total ETH 1Person is buying: 10eth in our case
b: Eos Token available in a Periode: 200mio
c: Total ETH contributet by all during the Periode ( 5 days Long will it be available))
ok now lets calculate what we will pay for 1 Eos in this 3 cases
we will calculate with: 1ETH = 336$
Here Comes the Formular
a *(b\c)
In the first example lets assume 100Mio$(297.000ETH) will be bought by People during the 5 days.
10ETH * (200.000.000 EOS\297.600 ETH) = 6720 EOS you will get for your 10 ETH. 10ETH = 3360$\6720EOS = 0,50$ you paid per EOS
And now look what happens if more People buy an more $ goes into this.
(You can put this Numbers in the Formular above and recalculate if you want)
300Mio= 892.857 ETH = 2240 EOS = 1,50$ per token
500Mio= 1.488.095 ETH = 1340 EOS = 2,50$ per token
1000Mio = 2.976.190 ETH = 672EOS = 5$ per token
Why this Numbers? 100 Mio to 1 Bil?
Bancor collectet 156 Mio in 3 Hours!
What do you think could happen in 5 days?
The question is now what is the fair Price so i can estimate if the Price is too high or not.
This is near impossible to say but...
You can watch another icos with a simmilar supply
i now this is not 100% correct but atleast you can see a Price range
at a Supply at 1 Bil ( even it is distributet over a Long time ) i would say a Price Range from
0,24$ to 0,50$ is ok everything else Looks overpriced for me. but as i sayd this cant be calculatet this is in your Hands what do you think is overpriced or not.
But this are the numbers.
Hope i could clearifiy this a Little.
And if i did a mistake in calculation plz tell me i will correct it.
Thanks and have a nice day
and dont understand me wrong. I love this People i love steemit and BTS and i really want EOS but i dont feel confident with tis ICO.
Have a nice day again...
I was thinking about the same thing, the formula benefits the whales more than our average Joe. However, I thought about how we can benefit from these ICOs which EOS will happen side by side with Tezos. Both will required some sort of Eth, it's a good time to stack up Eth before it goes up in price.
Im not sure if the whales get more benefit because price will be same low/high for all. The benefit is not the problem, its more then buy in with an amount of money you know but with getting an amount auf eos you dont know. thats the point for me atleast. thanks for your respond and opinion
The whale will benefit more even though the average price of the coin will be the same on "THIS POOL" vs of the rest of the pool you will be paying higher unit cost. Also the more you invest; the more control over the EOS coins, as a result when the EOS hits the exchange the whale can manipulate the market. Imagine a whale has control over 80% of the first pool 200,000,000 distribution how are you going to compete with only the rest of the 20%? Never mind the rest of the pool gets more expensive than the first pool. From an average Joe perspective, if you want to gamble we are better off investing in ETH because all of the money invested in EOS will be locked for 1 year, that's going to help building the Ether price up. But Investing Ether is very risky, as always, if you can't afford to loss what you invest then don't do it. ICO bubble will pop it's a matter of time.
Youre right didnt considered that. But isnt it a big gamble for a whale? Hw must put alot of money into this then and even then he pushed his own price in sky. But yes eventhen he could manipultate the price. Another good reason for me to wait even when the price rockets.
Now-a-days, whales are very patient. They will first drive down the price, and wait for a period of time and drive down the price even more, when everyone starts to panic sell...they will buy up very quickly then drive down the price again. Unless you got a pre-pump signal from a whale, you probably won't react fast enough to make a profit. As we speak, Eth price is going down to $260 at Poloniex. Good Luck investing!
Hmmm, your exposure of the matter is broader than the one you are talking about. Ill follow you and welcome to steemit
Thanks for sharing. Buy TenX instead =)
Yeah i like tenx too but dont have money left :D
How many times have you posted? I wish I could downvote you.
This is my 4th time i will post it as many i like, Whats your problem with that?
That's very nice of you.
I wrote: I gave you a tip, buy something and calm down. This message is gone? What happend?
Thank for the tips.. sometimes. Good project didn't mean not have problem..
youre welcome
Thanks for a very documented article!
If the price becomes too high in a window, people will stop buying in that window. They aren't stupid and do calculate their position. It's money and money makes the brain function like no other.
im not sure about the brain of people when hype meets greed, look at gnosis
With the track record of Dan Larimer and size of the community second only to Ethereum itself I would say each EOS at least to me is worth $2-3. So total cap of 2-3 billion if there are 1 billion.
wish you all luck . 2-3 $ are 400Mio$ -600Mio$ in buys. Sound like a realistic range. Dont forgot you buy only 20% of the stack. Some people would say dpending on the shares price i *5. But im not sure about this because they will sell slowly this should help eos to stabilize better
Its all about what you think EOS will be worth. With $1/EOS, its market cap will become 1 billion. It'll become greater than Bitshares and will come in 9th place.
I think $1/eos is very overpriced. It'll be more like $0.1-0.2
The only thing i am worried about is the long ICO, 1 year is a very long time in Crypto world. If we don't see development in this front we may lose steam!!
10- 20 cent? they are selling only 20% = 200 Mio coins: to be at 20 cent it means they will only collect 40 Mio $ Are you sure about this?
20% currently within 5 days. Rest 70% they'll be selling in 351 days.
Lets say they collect more than 100 million in these 5 days. Coin will cost $0.5, that is high for somthing that you can only trade after a year. If i am not wrong.
Solid blog. Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I strongly advice people to only buy in to cryptos that have a solid background: A solid team, product, advisors, preferably VC investors, etc. Sell all cryptos that don't have this solid background. It's a waiste of money. Personally I always use: https://www.coincheckup.com The best crypto analysis site by far. Complete in depth investment analysis.