The Perfect Storm.

The June employment report came out, as expected, with encouraging numbers. It is based on payroll status for June 12. Compared to a month earlier when reopening was just starting, it has the full effect of the reopening...and NONE of the impact in the three weeks since then, as cases skyrocketed.

This strong report reinforces the politicians who believe we're through the worst of it. It strengthens the case to NOT extend unemployment benefits or to do another stimulus payment. These benefits end July 31, so they'll be gone before the July report is available.

It is entirely possible that as job losses are increasing, we will withdraw the stimulus (and mortgage and rent protections, etc.) with the effect of slamming on the brakes while the economy is starting another downturn.

So we'll have more unemployed people, the unemployed people will have much lower support, and the protections to keep them housed and afloat will be removed. At the same time. Meanwhile, case counts will rise at least through mid July, and likely longer if the current efforts are too feeble.

I really, really hope I'm wrong. Maybe the case rate will flatten this week. Maybe the death rate won't start to increase in July. Maybe employment will continue to rise, or an extended stimulus will be passed. But right now, I can't see much evidence for any of it.