There are many factors to look at when determining if a recession is looming or not.
One of the most overlooked areas is the simple demographic breakdown. In the United States, the population growth rate and the demographic shifts makes it impossible for the U.S. to have the growth rate anticipated. Instead, we will see the exact opposite: recession ahead.
When less people are working, consumption of cars, homes, and other items decreases. This translates into a likelihood that most age groups are at or near peak employment.
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