The Economist's Senate forecast.

A year ago if you told me the Senate majority was still in play I'd have been deeply skeptical. The 2024 Senate map couldn't have been worse, especially when Manchin said he was retiring. That basically guaranteed Republicans at least one flip in a map that had a lot of Democrats in red states up for reelection.

I'll take a 1 in 3 shot at the Senate majority with this map.

Especially given the 2026 Senate map is actually not bad. If it does end up as a 51 seat Republican majority, it is definitely possible the Dems reclaim the majority in 2026. There are a number of flip opportunities on the 2026 map.