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RE: "No One Saw This Coming" Except Me: How I Predicted a Trump Win 6 Months Ago [With Evidence]
it was literally 50/50 chance and I bet you wouldn't be posting this if Hilary had won.
Post-hoc fallacy. After something happens, those who got it right claim victory with the classic "i told you so".
Same would happen if Hilary had won and some other guy came with his vague correlations.
One thing is certain. The fools never learn. Here is a piece I wrote for your kind
Actually I would own up to my error and discuss what I might have done wrong for those interested in reading it. Where are your predictions so we can evaluate your track record? It was not "literally" 50/50, you clearly don't understand statistics. The odds were 27/73. I never claimed to know for certain what would happen, I am merely making my process accessible to others for them to evaluate for themselves and providing proof that I had skin-in-the-game. My point is NOT that I am always right. I am only trying to establish a public record of my predictions so that people can evaluate for themselves whether I am a good forecaster or not.
Track record means shit. Nobody can predict the future. Usually crypto enthousiasts and other traders think they understand the world but as our favourite author Nassim Taleb stated the world is chaotic and rulled by randomness. So you can quote the IYI part but you can't forget an entire book that frames that philosophy behind why the IYI are idiots to begin with. Statistics are a fools game. You can draw correlations any way you want. Again. Taleb.
Odds mean shit. Same applies if an outsider in a sports game wins and then all the "sports experts" come post-hoc to explain why the favourites had "problems". You did the same shit with your magic-glass-ball article.
Yeah, people like you and the TDV always make sure to make public predictions only for the times they got it right. Same applies to traders and gambling junkies. Celebrities make sure to shill themselves only positively. How very awesome.
I can bring quotes from Taleb that will tear your arguments a couple of extra assholes but I am sure you are well aware of them. (only when it suits you)
Ok, thanks for reading the article and taking the time to respond. I will bear your point in mind. The great thing about steemit is that all of my posts and predictions have been immortalized on the blockchain, people are free to make their own decision. I will only reiterate that I was not claiming to know what would happen in the future, my only real claim was that the analysis of Trump's odds were faulty and that made purchasing his shares a good bet. I happened to be right this time. I will be wrong in the future. I will admit it. You can feel free to hold me to that.
Update: I have modified my post after considering your points. Thanks for your feedback.
Again. Only the predictions you chose to immortalise. If you had the balls you would have done it before the results came about. Not after.
I worked in news publishing for a while. Before elections or big games we always had two stories prepared and both of them were sounding very plausible from a post-hoc perspective. Stories with correlations are way too easy to write. Almost like writing fiction. People usually lack critical thinking so they just buy almost anything.
A massive A.I predicted that Trump would win. It was not such a big surprise. The only reason many people got surprised was because every single social media and news outlet outhere is either SJW'ed to fuckoblivion or liberally shilled.
Sure your predictions will be immortalised but really, nobody gives a fuck. I could ask you for the inventor of the computer microchip or cryptography or the inventor of the sattelite you use to transmit your messages and you wouldn't know. What makes you think people will pay attention to you or me?
Anws that's another subject but please feel to entertain me on that subject as well.
Ok, I thought buying shares 6 months before the election, writing an article 2 months before the election and an update 2 weeks before the election was enough in advance. But as I said in my update to the article, your earlier point was valid, I wasn't making predictions (and if I was I shouldn't have been). I should have been more clear and said something like "the methodology underpinning the odds were flawed and so Trump shares were undervalued in my subjective opinion." I cannot predict the future and I should not have allowed my post to appear as if I believed that to be the case. Thank you for your helpful feedback.