Pennsylvania is the most important battleground.
So I played with an electoral map calculator and it is hard to overestimate how important Pennsylvania is to the election. If Trump wins PA then all he needs is to hold on to GA and NC and he has 270 electoral votes with all the other states his is significantly favored to win. He can lose NV and AZ and it would not matter. He becomes president.
On the other hand, if Harris wins PA then Trump winning NV, AZ, GA and NC will not matter unless Trump wins the district NE then Harris has 270 votes. Trump could counter by winning either WI or MI but if he loses PA I doubt he wins those other two midwestern states as he is doing better in PA than in them.
Is it possible for Trump or Harris to lose PA and win the election? Yeah but my nonstatistical guess is that they have about a 10 percent chance of doing that. PA is just that massively important in the election. So if this election stays this close until November then pay attention to PA on election night because it is likely to decide the whole ballgame.
"Wow, this is such a fascinating analysis! 🤔 The importance of Pennsylvania in the election is mind-blowing! I love how you've used a calculator to break down the electoral map - it's like having our own little game theory going on here 😊. Your 10% chance estimate for Trump or Harris losing PA but still winning the election has me curious... What do you think are some possible scenarios that could lead to this outcome? Would love to hear more of your thoughts! 💬"