GDP numbers.

First quarter GDP growth came in below expectations at 1.6%. About 1.1 points below the GDPNow nowcast. Not a huge miss, but a miss all the same.

The silver lining is that most of this was a decrease in inventories and net exports. Consumer spending was still strong.

When I say silver lining, you can think of the core of the economy in GDP as consumption and residential and business investment. If I was looking for signs of a recession I'd look at these rather than the headline that includes inventories, government spending, and trade.

We can make this easier just by tracking the major coincident indicators too.