Recession probability.

The probability we were in a recession in April was 0.9%.

This model undergoes revision as more data becomes available for previous months than was available at the time of the initial probability.

Recent months have been revised down slightly with more data.

The probability we are in a recession remains extremely low. The highest we have gotten since the pandemic recession is 1.4% in December, 2022. That's also very low.

Historically if we are in a recession, the probability would get above 80%.