The Last Two Times We Saw This The Economy Was In A Recession - Episode 1402a
The retail apocalypse continues Sears, Nordstroms and many big department stores are in trouble. Empire Fed survey surges as the real data declines. Recession warning, last two times this happened we entered into a recession. Probably nothing. Many analysts that study patterns are now predicting a market correction, a recession/depression, there is a 70%-80% chance of another global economic crisis.
always a great report, Dave. Thanks for what you bring!!
definite food for thought. the economy is very fragile. Economics 101 - Supply and Demand, and Demand is weak. Historically the pattern is that the Feds will keep raising the short term interest rates until they are higher than the long term rates and the Feds realize that the markets are heading south and then the Feds start to lower interest rates to revive the economy - then repeat the cycle.
At the low point in the cycle most Central Banks went to 0%, some even went negative, that is, they started charging the banks interest on cash left overnight with the Central Banks.
Interesting stuff, rough roads and dark nights over the horizon. I think the question is not if a Recession but rather when.
And in my humble opinion the global economy has never gained strength from the last 'recession' in spite of the incredible money printing presses working night and day and the historic super low interest rates. what will they do for an encore when this 'recovery' fizzles?
thanks for posting @x22report.