There are many indicators that are used to predict the economy. Like most things with statistics, the numbers can get confusing. In fact, it is easy to draw completely opposite conclusions depending upon what indicators one is looking at.
This is often the case with Central Banks. One of the challenges they have is sifting through the data to draw accurate conclusions.
One indicator seems to be the best barometer of when we will see a recession. At present, we are looking like the economy is going to suffer soon. While the timing might not be easy to pinpoint, the fact is the track record cannot be argued. Even the U.S. Fed admitted that it is the best indicator of a recession.
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