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RE: Daily Dose of Good News: GDP Grew at 3.2% Annual Rate
OK at best. We're in the midst of another bubble(S?) and when it pops it will be even uglier. In the meantime, overall participation rates are still at 40-year lows and youth participation is at all-time low, most races still haven't recovered from 2008
Definitely agree that there are some big imbalances that are likely contributing to underlying risk, and any of those can manifest into recession, asset bubble corrections, renewed surge of unemployment, etc. For the time being, however, the juggernaut continues to roll forward...
I know. And with null interest rates it will inflate even further.
true, the long run effects of ZIRP could very well be a mess.
"could"? Never find the fake objectivity; now it's not a question of if, but WHEN. The Fed more than quadrupled the monetary base since 2008, and ZIRP just encouraged careless spending rather than savings, the true motor of economic growth
I share disdain for the policy hubris, just moderate my own forecasts because so much else is going on in the world/economy; bad policies surely make us poorer than we'd otherwise be, but it's entirely possible the bad policies never cause catastrophe. Econ policies have oscillated between horrifying to bad for all of human history, and yet we keep getting richer as a civilization. Tail risks grow with bad policy, but def don't become certainties because of the billions of other people working, creating value, innovating, and offsetting the bad.