Economics is a Very Dangerous Science

Economics is a very dangerous science precisely because it empowers smart people with complex tools to make policy prescriptions that often end up imposed on everyone. Economists invoke the mathematics of theoretical physics alongside complex econometrics in hope of better understanding human nature and our countless interactions. 

The problem is that human nature is not neatly explained with mathematics. We are complex organisms whose interactions exponentiate the level of complexity, and we're dynamically evolving in preferences, opportunities, behaviors, etc. 

Another problem is that economists often use their credentials to extrapolate beyond their expertise. Just look at Paul Krugman's NY Times column to see this in the nauseating extreme. Just because you can work through a math proof that invokes the hyperplane separation theorem does not in any way qualify you to govern others, or recommend prescriptions for governance. 

Alex Tabarrok posted an excellent article today on Marginal Revolution rebutting the lament of Marshall Steinbaum and Bernard Weisberger that the American Economic Association is no longer a radical, progressive force. The rebuttal points out that when economists have been "radical" and "progressive" in the past they have argued vociferously against free markets (a.k.a. freedom), and argued for militarism, racism, and eugenics. 

One of the American Economic Review's first published articles was Frederick Hoffman’s "Race Traits and Tendencies of the American Negro," which disgustingly concludes with:

Intercourse with the white race must absolutely cease and race purity must be insisted upon in marriage as well as outside of it. Together with a higher morality will come a greater degree of economic efficiency, and the predominating trait of the white race, the virtue of thrift, will follow as a natural consequence of the mastery by the colored race of its own conditions...

and...

All the facts brought together in this work prove that the colored population is gradually parting with the virtues and the moderate degree of economic efficiency developed under the regime of slavery. All the facts prove that a low standard of sexual morality is the main and underlying cause of the low and anti-social condition of the race at the present time. All the facts prove that education, philanthropy and religion have failed to develop a higher appreciation of the stern and uncompromising virtues of the Aryan race. The conclusion is warranted that it is merely a question of time when the actual downward course, that is, a decrease in the population, will take place. In the meantime, however, the presence of the colored population is a serious hindrance to the economic progress of the white race.

I'll add that economists have also argued for communism, fascism, and other authoritarian controls of economic life. 

Conclusion

The main takeaway from this short expose of out-of-control economists is not to reject economics, as a whole, as is becoming increasingly popular. The study of human behavior, incentives, and complex interactions in markets should continue; there have been tremendously positive and insightful advancements in knowledge. 

For the non-economist public, my message is that you should take policy prescriptions from the profession with a grain of salt. Be skeptical and realize that there are always deal-breaker underlying assumptions to any theory, and every model is always wrong (but some are useful!). Econometrics is a powerful tool set, but remember that the results are generalizations on averages that likely don't uniformly apply to everyone in the same way that gravitational fields do. 

To economists, remember that humility is a virtue! Be aware of biases in your own cognitive abilities, one of which will likely be a proclivity to favor models and explanations that have "closed form solutions" that make you feel good for understanding something that dazzles the layman. Beware of non sequiturs, extrapolating beyond your samples, and allowing your insights to translate into policies that can strip human beings of their fundamental rights. 

What are your thoughts? 

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Rob Viglione is a PhD Candidate in Finance @UofSC with research interests in cryptofinance, asset pricing, and innovation. He is a former physicist, mercenary mathematician, and military officer with experience in satellite radar, space launch vehicles, and combat support intelligence. Currently a Principal at Key Force Consulting, LLC, a start-up consulting group in North Carolina, and Head of U.S. & Canada Ambassadors @BlockPay, Rob holds an MBA in Finance & Marketing and the PMP certification. He is a passionate libertarian who advocates peace, freedom, and respect for individual life.  

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