RE: Planned Obsolescence?
Complexity IS difficult to do efficiently, that is true. I was simplifying. It is scaled by efficiency. Just because a competitor manages equivalent complexity with more efficiency doesn't mean the system is prevented from converging into a typical competitor dominance model. It just means the system is still transitioning. The complexity of the system increases because of it and the bar of entry for new competitors ratchets up. Competition decreases in proportion to how many competitors there are - which is strongly correlated to the cost of entry. The competition system (market) matures in an iterative process like this, with the overall effect of a gradual decrease in competition and an overall increase in the value-lead established competitors enjoy over new entries. It has the effect of the dominant position being occupied for a longer and longer time with a lower and lower probability of disruption until they are effectively perpetual monopolies.
If it is a market, information flowing from the consumer becomes increasingly decoupled and the actions of the dominant producer become less responsive. At that point, monopolies usually select a point that extracts maximum value from the system while retaining the minimal responsiveness required to suppress new disruptions as they arise. Generally they park there until they are dislodged by black swan events acting on the system from outside.
Mega corporations don't exist only because of governments. Governments tend to be just another example of this competition process. They will reform about as rapidly as monopolies once the system restarts and for identical reasons. I have been studying 'abstract competition' as a converse of 'abstract corruption' to look for features that may lead to alternatives, but as I said, it is a hard problem.
Again, technological innovation and evolving markets make this true only in immutable markets. Paradigmatic evolutions often - and more often of late - sometimes simplify rather than increase complexity of a niche, and enable upstarts to innovate into a market.
Much like biological evolution, species of products arise from hybrids of extant varieties, and then target specific metrics that make them a better fit to conditions, until a new product arises that simply replaces the former best product. The fossil record reveals this just as well as the history of technology.
Regarding abstract competition and corruption (which is an endemic feature of markets obscured for competitive advantage and of which understanding is far too poorly disseminated) I note that decentralizing means of production are simply obviating the problem - as novel and disruptive technology is wont to do. I expect that the advantage of having control of every aspect of products by consumers competent to produce them themselves is relegating most economic theory to obsolescence, along with collectivism and centralization in every form. This is not to say that cooperation is obsolete, merely forced compliance with institutional authority.
I think you are asserting that technological advancement represent a force that continually erodes the bar of entry (tending to increase competition as a result). If that is an accurate paraphrase of your point, I agree. My point about the new competitor raising the complexity of the system is still valid, but the upward pressure it exerts on the bar of entry is significantly countered countered by the downward pressure that technological advancement exerts.
Good point.
I feel like too much ambiguity still remains in the terms 'technological advancement' and 'complexity' at this point and they are placeholders waiting for more precise descriptions.
Your last point is an important aspect and needs to be included in any understanding of this. I suggest using the following thought experiment as a proxy for capturing the effects of 'technological advancement' on a competition system: Imagine the players in the competition system have a capability slider that can be moved from near zero to near infinite. Set to the low side, it would mean players were roughly like amoeba, primarily helpless to create or affect the majority of their environment (external control locus). Set to the high side, it would mean players are god like and their environment is helpless to resist the affects and intentions of the players (internal locus of control). It is clear that such a conceptual slider would have large effects on a competition system/market. Historically, I would say that typical people have their sliders set quite low, and companies have traditionally been many multiples higher. Looking at how competition occurs with the capability sliders set to different experimental settings seems important for gaining information about competition in general. It is almost time for me to write a program modeling this to take measurements. I haven't figured out the details of modeling the group dynamics represented by super-organisms however. I call them ubermensch and they are capable of cohesively pursuing goals as an atomic player does, but they consist of a group of players. It is hard to model ubermensch correctly in a simple fashion.
The concept of scarcity, scale and freedom take on highly specific meaning and can produce counter-intuitive implications for some capability slider settings in this thought experiment - an additional perspective to consider the problem-space from.
You are rightly parsing my thoughts on technological advance. I also agree that such punctuations are occasional, and that between such events complexity increases, as you state.
Considering the bulk of your remark, I will need time to parse it. However, decentralization of means of production will continue to erode centralization of wealth, and power derived from it. It doesn't seem likely that force can be prevented as long as people tinker. I reckon of post market economy will eventuate, and non monetary aspects of society will become far more valuable as a result. Not sure how that impacts your concept of ubermensch and competition.
Something about how you put that reminded me of an observation I had related to the capability slider thought experiment. It goes like this:
-Begin with a population of super-AIs (slider set high)
-Value shifts entirely to the scarcity of resources used for production
-Now begin each AI player with an identical set of resources
?does any trade occur?
At first I thought no, but after looking at it more closely, I think some players would choose scarcity in some areas to have fulfillment in others in accordance with something equivalent to their version of 'Maslow's pyramid of drives'. There are a couple of solutions, one involving 'time sharing' with each player solving scarcity intermittently, and another involving seeking different equivalencies in the 'drive pyramid' and the players trading accordingly. In any event, it reveals the importance of a 'drive model' for evaluating competitions. Maslow's thingy is just a low rez proxy for a method of detecting and mapping goal structures in general.
Lol, when I removed all scarcity of production resources, I found I expected no trade to occur at all. For some reason, I am suspicious of that, as if I expect the AI to create artificial scarcity intentionally due to qualities from some possible goal structures. .
Markets will persist for the foreseeable future, and resource scarcity continue to necessitate trade. Resource scarcity will eventually become incompetent to affect production - but eventually is a broad term. We're not gonna see personally owned automated asteroid mining for some time, and such mechanisms are the only obvious means to eliminate resource bottlenecks.
I think it was Neal Stephenson that described a communal resource sharing mechanism in 'The Diamond Age' that might accelerate the end of resource scarcity to a large degree, but even that wouldn't preclude rockhopping robots hunting down rare Earth metals and the like.
I reckon you're quite right that in the meantime, resource scarcity will drive specialization and interindustrial trade, as that potentiates greater profit and market share, even desirable state of monopoly.