What a terrific post! This summer I was in a weird space with lots of time on my hands and not much to do, so I read Nate Silver's "the Signal and the Noise" about predictions and how they work (or more likely don't work).

Late in the fall I got a free copy of Richard Thayler's "Misbehaving" and read it.

The two of those together make for a great background for your post. Makes me really glad I read them.

Thanks for a really great post that just happens to be my first effort on Qurator. What an auspicious start.