RE: Bitcoin at all time highs, whats gonna happen? and let's look at Small Account Building trades
Your bases are correct, but you have to start to wonder about the strength of that 85 base after all that consolidation.. Let me explain:
on the 23rd it gave a solid bounce from 85 to 105ish.. thats really strong, and makes for a good base.. it would be very surprising to everyone if that support did not hold in a future retest.. Then on the 27th it retested and held, and caused a bounce from 85 to 96ish.. (smaller bounce, less conviction)... then the next day it restested 85s again and bounced to 90s (smaller bounce, less conviction) then for the next day or two it played around 85s... So after all that weakening, who is surprised that it cracked below 85?? Like, who was not expecting that?? it was getting weaker and weaker..
Well, there will always be a few novice players that get surprised and that will maybe cause a little panic, and it did .. all the way to 65s but then it bounced only to 80s again and not to its 85 base, and that does not surprise me, because that 85 base was pretty well played out..
I just gave you a long rant/explaination to help you to see why it may not return to the 85s : because for most big players, they could see that 85 was about to crack and therefore they were not caught in trades, they didnt have to panic, most of the crowd was not surprised by that crack.
So in situations like this do you wait for a newer more well defined base to jump in, or do you just want to see a larger dive before jumping in? Or do you kind of fall back to using the last stronger base at 76? As you can see if you did use 76 it did get the bounce back.
I only take trades off a strong base.. I need all my trades to have a high high success rate
Absolutely excellent reply, this has cleared a lot up for me tremendously. So if a base appears to be weakening from being retested multiple times and the bounce gets weaker, it may not return to that base if it cracks it. In that case, do we go to the base before that (assuming that base has a strong bounce)?
Thanks so much man, I keep rewatching videos for any info I missed.
Luc I understand where you're going with the 85 base becoming weaker and weaker on the chart but this heavy panic was gamechanging news related I didn't exactly happen organically. Does this impact your buy in.. or you think whales will scoop up these low 70's regardless of the news?
Thanks
News trumps technicals... If you every find a coin with game changing news, (an example would be fraud, or some one hacked there system and took coins) then I wouldn't touch it no matter how great the bases are.
@quickfingersluc you have taught me something new
This was such a great explaination and makes so much sense. I was literally thinking about this on several charts and couldn't explain what I thought was going on... but you can literally see the support weakening before your eyes. You nailed it. Thank you.
How many trades on average can a trader expect per day/week? I know this varies greatly based on many factors... greatly. However, with the types of deep bases that you are perfect at trading off of, it seems that these types of trades don't happen all that often. I'm continually marking charts daily, but very few bases crack regulary. Perhaps I need to get into HitBTC or Liqui? I'm on Poloniex, Bittrex, and Bitfinex now. Do you have any thoughts on this topic?
I'm just trying to figure out the best way to allocate my funds for position trading vs. day trading vs. long-term investments (e.g. Bitcoin) and what reasonable expectations are in terms of gains (not necessarily the percentage of gains, but number of times you can gain via a base cracking). My goals are to account build, but ALSO make large profits through larger swings.
Would love your thoughts on this and THANKS AGAIN, really love your stuff.
If you set alerts below bases, on all the coins you like, then you will find your alerts go off, quite often. Just set those alerts at places that you would buy, not at base cracks, but lower.. and then you can also use the scanners to take small account building trades for fun, with small amounts of money, just to keep yourself active all day.. That helps with patience while you wait for the bigger position trades.