Could dPoll plug Steem into prediction markets and sports betting?
Could dPoll plug Steem into prediction markets and sports betting?
The size of the global market for sports betting is huge and rapidly growing. For the US alone it was valued at 40 billion USD in 2016. Another study forecasts the global market size to reach 155 billion USD in 2024. Could dPoll be the dApp that connects the Steem economy to this massive market?
Using dPoll to trade outcomes of real-life events may roughly work as follows:
- Initiate a dPoll like „Who will win the match of Team A vs Team B on DATE, LOCATION?“
- Team A wins
- Team B wins
- Tie
- To participate in a potential payout a wager of X SBD has to be sent to an escrow account.
- The odds are constantly calculated and updated in the poll.
- After the event has closed, payouts are distributed amongst the winners. Cuts are paid to dPoll and the host of the poll.
This process would surely need to be refined by market experts, but do you agree that this is something the dPoll-Team should look into?
(Image licensed from my personal Adobe stock account)
- Absolutely! With this dPoll could become Steem’s killer dApp for mass adoption.
- Agree! If done right, this could be a profitable use case for dPoll.
- Maybe. But there are many technical and regulatory roadblocks in the way.
- I’m sceptical. With alternative solutions on the market already I don’t quite see the edge that dPoll would have over the competition.
- No way. The complexity of sports betting and prediction markets goes far beyond of what dPoll could cover.
Answer the question at dpoll.xyz.
I would be very interested to hear what @costanza has to say about this idea because I know he has been studying the blockchain prediction market stuff pretty closely. The guys at the #SBC tag would probably be interested too and might have some ideas.
Personally I think the value for dpoll and prediction markets could actually be the oracle (settlement of results) side of things which the industry has been struggling to solve well. If dpoll could get polling/consensus on match results and provide accurate oracle services it could be a massive bonanza for both sports bettors and dpoll.
Shaka, have you seen ScorumBet? It is still not implemented perfectly, but if someone makes a proper app around this idea, it will kill any other attempt in betting domain.
Thanks for the additional comment!
I know about Scorum but I would obviously be interested in a Steem-driven solution. But yeah, competition is there and it needs to become clear what value proposition dPoll would need to represent or which submarket to target to be competitive.
You see Shaka, ScorumBet is based upon the Steem blockchain, and it is fairly easy to buy SCR with steem. There you have completely commission-free betting (the only expense is for the steem<—>SCR transfer fee), you have the possibility to exchange your SCR for fiat AND EARN SMALL COMMISSION, you always have several Free Bets initiatives, you have boosted odds, you have several prediction games, you have a chance to set your own odds… I doubt anyone would turn to dpoll after seeing all of this.
And since I have wrote all of this, I’m going to put up a text about ScorumBet very soon :)
I wouldn't label Scorum as "based upon the Steem blockchain" because it is a fork of steem and thus creates a competitive economy. There is nothing wrong with that and the market will find out what the better products and offerings are. For my part I see several barriers to overcome if I'd wish to host a bet on Scorum yet not a single one if I'd wish to host one on Steem. Admittedly, the functionality would be far less sophisticated but that is because the specific dApp is not yet there on the steem chain. But I believe that dPoll could be developed towards covering that and it does already offer the possibility to improvise.
Voted for
But there are many technical and regulatory roadblocks in the way.
Gambling without legal licenses is forbidden in most countries.
Voted for
"Maybe" is not a proper answer, I know.
Besides the regulatory questions. Why should a user bet on dpoll? There need to be an incentive to somehow attract the user.
But If done right, the target group is big. So give it a try. Could be started with a steem price prediction contest. User has to vote for post and vote on dpoll. The payout will be paid to all who have voted correctly.
Thank you for joining the poll and for the additional thoughts.
As for the incentive, I think it can be the same as for betting in general, which is having excitement and making a profit. A few factors could give dPoll a competitive advantage in accessing this market imo. It already can connect to a large, investment/speculation/gambling-affine userbase, it already connects to a monetary solution to run bets and it can provide a very low-barrier experience for everyone to host bets.
Good idea to start e.g. with steem prize predictions.
Voted for
The blockchain is nowhere near fast enough to handle live sports betting righr now and its an incredibly complex.business. Take look at Betfair or Betdaq to see how these markets operate.
All you need to beat a live dpoll markwt wouls be someone trackside with a phone!
Dpoll could have other off course betting applications but not live in play markets
Thanks for joining the poll and for the additional comment!
In order to tap into this market I believe there is no need to offer betting on live events. The dPoll would need to be closed before the event has started.
Ok fair comment and like I said, it could have a place for antepost markets. It was something I was giving some thought to recently but your Dpoll idea is excellent in that respect but the regulatory issues would surely raise their ugly head at some point in the future sadly.
Posted using Partiko Android
Voted for
Voted for
I have had similar idea it could work :)
Voted for
Voted for
Voted for