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RE: 7/15/17 It's official! Dollar Vigilante Jeff Berwick makes history AND "out-Cramer's" Jim Cramer!
Regardless of any of the facts, I will applaud your boldness in "taking on" one of the top members on the platform.
"Never been done in history folks. "
I'm not questioning you here, just expressing surprise - has Cramer really never managed to do that? I guess that's because of the arbitrary $1000 limit right? I immediately think of his Bear Stearns / Lehman Brothers calls.
It's the "arbitrary" limit plus the short time frame. It's actually extremely difficult to generate consecutive 30% losses in any asset in a short few weeks regardless of the price point. Jim Cramer has gotten alot of people destroyed with his outlooks for various assets. But even Jim in general abandons ship when an asset drops 50%+ from where he was pumping it. Jim also advises to take some away after a major run. Jeff Berwick simply celebrates how great he thinks he is. Even now, with people getting crushed who followed his "wisdom"...his response will be >>> "Yeah, but I was saying to buy when it was at $3 five years ago." I personally don't care about 5 years ago. I care about the newbies that will get crushed because of him. Actually, I don't even really care about them either. Most people are going to do what they are going to do. I am just letting people know about the way things are when an asset is in a bubble like bitcoin obviously is. More people will be looking for answers as price drops further. Jeff hasn't been through a 50% drop yet. Bitcoin only had one 50% drop in its short history, and that was after Mt Gox. Nobody even gave a crap about bitcoin back then. They do now though. We'll see what he says.... and I will continue to be aaaaall over it.
I always dislike those last few lines of Jeff's posts, where he always picks some ridiculously low price and says "if you'd listened to us, you'd have made 8 billion %". However, the community agrees with most of his views here (anarchy/crypto) and he puts his money where his mouth is (as far as moving to Mexico, etc), so he's got some cred here. Plus, he is a legit early adopter and been around here for some time. Probably good for the platform's publicity.
He has been nice to me in passing comments. I think he upvoted me big on my Bill Clinton "depends on what the meaning of "is" is" joke on Yellen's "no financial crashes in our lifetime" comment. I am sort of ambivalent to the situation and judging him on what happens going forward.
Btw, I generated 2 consecutive 50% gains by shorting a bitcoin related ticker. Here's my blog on it.
https://steemit.com/btsc/@joejustjoe/bitcoin-tracker-btsc-update-not-happy-with-one-50-loss-in-a-few-trading-days
You will also find on my blog list my commentary about the collapse of bitcoin in a blog about the U.S. exchange traded bitcoin tracker GBTC. I understand the way markets work, and how sentiment (the only factor you need to consider to determine "future" price movement) affects pricing in just about any market you wish to speak about. In fact, if you can find someone here who understands how markets are driven by sentiment better than I do, please bring them to my attention as I will certainly add them to my followed list.
If you had to guess, how low do you think sentiment around bitcoin scaling takes us? Or, are there too many variables around Aug 1 still?
Aug 1st is a "non-issue" as it was known 3 weeks ago when BTC was trading at $3000 and everyone was saying it would see $5000 by year end. That GBTC thingy has lows that are "non-confirmed" all teh way down to sub $25. No way it gets that low on this drop. It "should" break below $300 though. And I wouldn't be surprised to see GBTC trade down to the next closest one I logged in at $165. That would dictate an "actual" bitcoin price somewhere closer to $1000.
Ah, thanks for doing the GBTC price conversions, I didn't know them.
I agree with your call. I am expecting an overshoot of a bottom at around $1200, potentially taking us right around 900-1050. We'll see!
Just posted some new charts on this this morning, when I saw what a beating happened overnight.