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RE: Survivor Bias in Crypto (And why you think you will make Millions)

in #dlive6 years ago

Some of this is good advice like periodically taking profits and thinking in satoshi levels, but a lot of it is complete nonsense:

Says "don’t take peoples advice just based on the fact they made good money and were in crypto for a year", then expects people to take his advice from someone who just got into this 3 months ago and bought at peak valuations...then lists a bunch of obscure microcap coins and claims that with this he "will make a million this year and I say that with more confidence then anyone shilling you". Here is an actual protip to newbies: Those coins are his bags and he wants to unload them on you.

He doesn't seem to understand what market cap actually is, or what variable change it or how those variable change over time, thinking its simply the amount of money invested in a coin. He gave the example of Stellar and how "for it to double it will need another $6.5 billion", when it doesn't need anywhere near that amount of fiat to double. He also complete disregards the second variable of float distribution, which for a coin with only a tiny fraction of its total supply released like Stellar will be highly impactful.

He claims that Twitter accounts is his biggest resource for learning about crypto, when its probably the worst source. Really only newbies buy based on what they read from shills on Twitter. Even worse he seems to think someone is a good source because he went back in their post history and looked if they praised coins that went up. First of all these people delete the calls they get wrong and leave the ones they get right to sucker in people like OP into buying their low market cap coins. Second, this is classic survivorship bias and even he says himself that the market went up x42 so tons of people called bad coins at lower prices. Third, Twitter is filled with shill groups who shill low market cap coins which widely mooned during the dumb money alt coin run late 2017, when OP entered and people like him bought them up. When he says "most successful guys with highest success rates usually call the same coin", what he doesn't realize is that most of these are organized accounts that pump shitcoins to people on Twitter and then dump them after they moon.

He equates how much someone else has made on a coin in a short period of time to that being a good investment prospect. This makes absolutely no sense. In fact this type of thinking is exactly why so many obscure PnD coins exist.

Says "STOP buying peoples tops, let the noobs that come into crypto buy YOUR tops", not realizing he's a newb who bought other people's tops.

Believes that at the same time this is a zero sum game and that "everyone made money in 2017". He claims that it is a zero sum game and then advises new inexperieced people to trade rather than hold. Well if its a zero sum game then the new people are going to lose money trading with the experienced traders and whales.

Apparently there will be "bull market coming up in the next couple weeks or months" yet at the same time "you can’t predict if it will dip tomorrow, next week, or next month".

That portfolio is ridiculous, especially because he himself says "Crypto is not just vaporware", then lists what is mostly vaporware shitcoins and third world ICOs. Zero risk management, zero safety margin. This is an awful portfolio for a new investor, most of those don't even have any tangible use case or product whatsoever.

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thanks for sharing your views . really impressive

you're welcome

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