I really appreciate your work and of the EWT-team. The success of this approach of analysis in combination with money management is unbeatbale.
The problem of Elliott Wave is that there are several ways to count the wave structure. I found this unpopular and scary analysis on Tradingview shown below - beside all the other moon counts - predicting an even greater crash.
But I think this count lacks historic reference with only linear scale starting in 2014 in compare to the ones you have published. The more you look into the past the further you can see into the future and that does not only apply to price movements. Furthermore the sentiment among the (former) hodlers is already too depressive to justify an even deeper crash. We will see...
One of the huge mistakes made is use of linear fibs (if the person even understands how to use fibs and Elliott Wave together) I can see person doesn't even have the chart in log and of course if so, fibs on tradingview are linear only.
Could you spell out the rationale for log fins rather than linear? Would be helpful to understand your reasoning.
Thanks!
See my talk on the subject at the Trader Expo. (Less typing for me) A moneyshow.com login is free, but you might get some marketing email. To avoid watching the first half which is for beginners, I begin discussing EW at 20m.
https://www.moneyshow.com/video/394537c54fc446ed9b9836198b25e3b01/trading-opportunities-in-crypto-currencies/
Thanks, will do
In essence- my example is Ether's 1.618 extension (target for wave 3) is $3563. In linear it is $39. Big difference!!!. Now, we topped in 3 at the 1.382 which calculates out in log at $1420 (really close!!!). 1.382 is what we call 'low 3' on EWT. Lowest you'd expect. But you can see how off it is if in linear. Disasterous if you are trading it. Now, if you go to hourly, it's off less because the waves you are measuring are less in % terms. But as you expand in range, it matters more. The only chart i don't worry about linear in cryptos are 5m scalping charts. For Forex, I use linear because it is hardly off. It's all about % range. There...as concise as I can state it. Knowing this has kept me long Ether since $10. Not full position, and I took a ton off at the 1.382 but knowing this is huge. Do STEEM in linear, then log. Unbelievable difference.
Thanks very much for the follow up, it helps a lot. I think in terms of the reasoning, your key statement is that it’s all about % range. I guess cryptos are volatile enough that the range will be big enough to go log at the outset. What about assets that are not as volatile? Do you have sort of a rule of thumb, like over 1000% range you are using log, and below that you might stick with linear?