2018 Kentucky Derby & The SPL

Hey all! Thank you so much for being a part of this. I love handicapping and basically anything that combines statistics, skill, sport, and a lot of luck. Here is a breakdown of everything, along with an easy guide so you know who to cheer for based on our picks. I have also included the full list of picks below if you really want all of the details.

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Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner

IF we win a bet, please be patient. If winnings are over $600, it will be taxed, and the taxes will be paid first, and then Beth, who has agreed to make all of these bets for us and handle the taxes afterwards, will receive a post-tax fee of 10%, which I think is very fair (she’s also playing along with us). The winnings will then be paid out via SBD based on your percentage of the prize pool. If the winnings are less than the amount that requires a tax, we’ll get our winnings quicker and while we won’t owe Beth the 10% bonus, please consider an SBD tip for her help. She is going to the track and making all of these bets for us (a track in Cali).

_{I bought a hat! xo, b}

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Race Day Guide and Explanation of Picks

I’ve loved horse racing for the past decade, and have had some luck handicapping races. Over the past few weeks I’ve studied this race very hard (maybe even overthinking it).

This is an extremely deep field in quality and quantity, making handicapping very difficult, but a fun challenge. I made our picks based on some of your thoughts along with my strong feelings about how the race will play out. So you know that I’m invested in my decisions, I matched the rest of the pool (41 SBD), so please don’t give me crap if we lose because I worked my ass off on this.

Two key horses in this race are the 7 (Justify) and the 14 (Mendelssohn). The 14 is my favorite horse in this race because of his track record, experience, speed, jockey, and trainer. I believe he will win the race, but in case he doesn’t there is a wide mix of bets in here.

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Horses to Root For:

#14 Mendelssohn:

Our overall top choice to win the derby. He is not the overall favorite in the race, which helps us get decent odds on him (around 5-1). At the beginning of the race he should be 4-5 horses away from the lead. If he’s at the front or in back we could be in trouble. Look for him to go to the front of the pack on the final turn, and pull away.

#7 Justify:

As mentioned, if both #7 and #14 finish in the top three, we should (we would then need any of around 10 other horses to take the next spot. There are some horses that could still ruin these bets) win the trifecta and have a shot at additional bets. Justify is a big strong beautiful horse who has only raced three times in his life. He should be near the lead and will also be asked to take off around the final turn. Contenders will try to challenge him early to wear him down, which could open up opportunities for Mendelssohn or other contenders. Cheer for him to finish second.

#5 Audible:

Many in the pool really liked this horse. I’m not sure, but on his best day he can hang with anyone. He’s a lazy horse in practice but tears up the track on race day.

#11. Bolt d’Oro:

Finished second to Justify in a tough matchup in California. Many feel that Bolt can win the race. We want him to finish anywhere from 2nd – 4th.

BEST CASE SCENARIOS:

While we won’t be rich, any combination of Mendelssohn and Justify finishing in the top three should be good for us. The exception is if one of the many underdog horses that we don’t have on a ticket make the top three (root against Noble Indy, Combatant, Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled)
• Mendelssohn 1st
• Bolt d’Oro 2nd
• Magnum Moon 3rd
• Free Drop Billy/Flameaway/Lone Sailor/Good Magic 4th
Note: The above would result in us winning a superfecta bet. In this case, it would be good if Justify did not finish in the top 4 since he is the heavy favorite (without the favorite, the bet will pay out significantly more).

Final Thoughts:

Don’t worry at the beginning of the race. Promises Fulfilled will be in the lead, and that’s how it’s supposed to be. He will set the pace and then will fade back. We want Justify and Mendelssohn to pounce after the final turn. Going too early or too late could be costly.

Please feel free to ask me any questions. Good luck!

Participants:
Blacky – 5 SBD = 6.1%
Beth – 10 SBD = 12.2%
Luchies – 41 SBD = 50%
NicNas 5 SBD = 6.1%
Rawdawg – 5 SBD = 6.1%
Chops - 5 = 6.1%
Seven 6 = 7.3%
Pachy 5 = 6.1%
Total: 82 SBD

The Picks
This probably looks like binary code to most people, but here are our picks as they will be entered at the track:
$1 exacta 7/14 w 2/5/6/8/9/10/11/12/16/18/20 ($22)
$1 exacta 5/11/16/18 w 7/14 ($8)
.50 tri 7/14 w 7/14 w 2/4/5/6/8/9/10/11/12/16/18/20 ($12)
.50 tri 7/14 w 2/4/5/6/8/9/10/11/12/16/18/20 w 7/14 ($12)
.50 tri 2/4/5/6/8/9/10/11/12/16/18/20 w 7/14 w 7/14 ($12)
.50 tri 7 w 11/14/18 w 2/4/5/6/8/10/11/14/18 ($12)
.50 tri 14 w 16/11/12 w 2/4/5/6/7/8/9/10/11/12/16/18/20 ($18)
.50 tri 14 w 5/6 w 11/9 ($2)
.50 tri 5/7/11 w 5/7/11/14 w 2/4/5/7/8/9/11/16/18/20 ($40.50)
.50 Tri 11/7 w 11/7 w 5/9/14/16 ($4)
.50 Tri 6 w 16/12/11 w 16/12/11 ($3)
.50 Tri 7 w 16/12 w 16/12 ($1)
.50 Tri Boxes:
• 7/16/9/5 ($12)
• 14/7/11/5 ($12)
$1 Tri 7 w 9 w 11/5/16 ($3)
$1 Tri 7 w 5 w 9/11/12/14/18 ($5)
$1 Tri 6 w 11 w 18/7/14 ($3)
$1 Tri 11 w 7/5 w 7/5/16 ($4)
$1 Tri 7 w 5/14 w 5/14/16 ($4)
$1 Tri 5 w 7/14 w 7/11/14/16 ($6)

$1 super: 14 w 7/11 w 7/11/18 w 2/4/5/6/8/7/11/16/18 ($28)
$1 super: 5 w 7/14 w 7/14/16 w 7/14/16/11/18 ($12)
$1 super: 11 w 7/5 w 7/5/16 w 7/5/16/14/11 ($12)
$1 super: 7 w 5/11/14 w 5/11/14/16 w 5/11/14/16/18 ($27)
($274.50)