At look at how the number of births have changed over time

in #demographics6 years ago (edited)

Falling birthrates have been in the news lately. Some countries are facing an extinction event, especially in eastern europe.

Here is a look at how the number of births have changed country by country:

United Kingdom

1945: 795,868 live births

2017: 774,835 live births

So not much change over time. The population is increasing mainly because people are living longer, plus immigration.

United States

1945: 2,858,000 live births

2017: 3,883,139 live births

As you can see they've had a huge surge over time (35% increase). This is a big part of why the American population has increased since 1945 (the other reasons being increased life expectancy and immigration).

France

1945: 645,899 live births

2017: 729,800 live births

So live births have increased by about 13% over time (with big increases in the 1950's and 1960's before falling back slightly). France is projected to have the biggest population in Europe by mid century, in part because they've maintained their birth rate and also because of immigration.

Germany

1945: 1,060,000 live births

2016: 792,131 live births

Germany is shrinking (deaths have outnumbered births since 1972). They've made up for it by importing temporary workers from the rest of the EU, and in 2015 also accepted 1 million migrants from the Middle East and Africa.

Japan

1945: 1,685,583 live births

2017: 941,000 live births

Japan's population is also shrinking. But they appear to be coping because hardly anyone emigrates and they are still very numerous (their population is currently 125 million).

China

1950: 20,232,000 live births

2017: 17,230,000 live births.

In the 1960's births reached 27 million a year in China. There has obviously been a steep drop since then, but when compared to 1950, they are stable.

India

1950: 16,832,000 live births

2017: 27,271,000 live births

India has the most live births in the world - their population is due to explode, especially if life expectancy increases.

Poland

1947: 630,000 live births

2017: 401 982 live births

Poland has had a 35% drop in births over time. They are also experiencing record emigration and practically no immigration. This might explain why they are so nationalistic - if these trends continue, they face an extinction event, and fears of that always provoke nationalism.

Russia

1946: 2,546,000 live births

2017: 1,690,307 live births

Russia has experienced a 34% drop in births, and in the mid 1990's births fell as low as 1.2 million. They are facing a population collapse, and will likely not be able to hold onto all their territory (especially in the east, where Chinese migrants are moving north to farm - Siberia was captured from the Chinese in the mid 19th century and China's superior demographics and finances mean they are likely to to take it back by mid century).

Russia's collapsing demographics are probably the reason they are so nationalistic at the moment. They not only have no way of matching the United States in population and wealth, but they too face an extinction event if current trends continue.

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I had no idea births in the United States had increased that much over the last 70 years. It explains why they're still a superpower - increasing population always helps.

Yes. The US is also in the fortunate position os being self-sufficient in food production, indeed they produce vast surpluses. Whereas most other countries have to import their food.

The united states is lucky it has all those prairies. Though whether that will still hold when the climate warms is a whole other issue.

Wow, look at India's live births. I know that the birth rate has come down, but even so.

India's birthrate is now below replacement, so they will stabalise at current levels. They are a lot poorer than China so their life expectancy isn't as high.

Their life expectancy will increase though, over time. They are going to end up with 2 billion people.

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