Matthew Yglesias Shows That Republican-Lite Democrats Are Not More Likely To Win
The conflict between the DCCC and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party seen in a Texas primary this week was just one instance of them supporting conservative over progressive Democrats. Democrats tried to run as a Republican-lite party in 2010 and 2014 and did poorly. They nominated the most anti-liberal pro-status quo candidate possible in Hillary Clinton for the presidency in 2016 and lost to a candidate as terrible as Donald Trump. On the other hand, non-establishment candidates have been doing better than many expected.
Matthew Yglesias, who is generally supportive of the Democratic establishment, has noted that the party's view that more conservative Democrats are the key to victory has not been valid. He provided some examples, and then discussed studies regarding this at Vox in an article entitled, The DCCC should chill out and do less to try to pick Democrats’ nominees--There’s very little evidence that “electable” moderates do better.
Some other things to consider are that the old linear left/right political spectrum no longer applies. Last year a change candidate was desired, and Bernie Sanders polled much better than Hillary Clinton in head to head tests against Republicans. There were a substantial number of Republicans as well as independents who would vote for Sanders, but not for Clinton. When the Democrats made the mistake of nominating Clinton, the remaining anti-establishment change candidate won (even if he advocated the wrong kind of change).The real truth, however, is that politics is hard to predict. Extensive empirical research shows that it matters less than you might think whether a party goes with an “electable” moderate.
- A 2002 study by Brandice Canes-Wrone, David W. Brady, and John F. Cogan found a 1 to 3 percentage point vote penalty for congressional candidates perceived as extreme in elections between 1956 and 1996.
- Arjun Wilkins pushed this research forward to 2012 and found that “as polarization substantially increased during the 1990s and 2000s, the penalty for extremism in the 1990s got smaller and in the 2000s, the penalty was no longer significant.”
- Both of those were studies of congressional incumbents who have clear voting records for citizens to assess. But in 2015, Brendan Pablo Montagnes and Jon C. Rogowskistudied congressional challengers’ platforms and “uncover[ed] no evidence that challengers increase their vote shares by adopting more moderate platform positions.”
- Chris Tausanovitch and Christopher Warshaw in 2016 found, again, that “ideological positions of congressional candidates have only a small association with citizens’ voting behavior,” largely because detailed assessments of individual candidates are swamped by basic partisanship.
This suggests primary voters should probably be inclined to vote for candidates who they think will be smart, hard-working advocates for causes they believe in rather than focusing too much on “electability” concerns.
It’s natural, in particular, for a national party committee whose work heavily features fundraising to be strongly biased toward candidates who are good at fundraising. But there’s very little evidence that this is genuinely the key to political success (Donald Trump, for example, was a terrible fundraiser in 2016), and overemphasis on donor-friendly candidates ends up putting a thumb on the ideological scale in an unseemly way.
Voters also prefer candidates who stand for something, while the types of Republican-lite Democrats who fail to stand for anything come across as fakes more interested in their own gain. Many Republican voters were willing to switch from traditional Republican views to those of Trump, suggesting that they were not really ideological conservatives while voting Republican. A large share of Sanders voters did not support him due to being far left on the traditional spectrum, but because they wanted a change from the corruption of the status quo. In contrast, the efforts of establishment Democrats to move to move the party of to the right has been a failure in election after election.
I think you are talking as if democracy matters to the power establishment. They don't care if Clinton or Trump are POTUS because they are both neo liberals and it is Neo liberalism that has delivered power to the establishment. Sanders was talking as if he might want to shake things up a little bit, maybe represent the interests of his progressive voters, remove big money and corporate power from politics - no way is that going to happen. It might be argued that with more votes, Sanders would have been the Democrat nominee in 2016 but the truth is, the primaries were rigged by the DNC, voting was corrupted to ensure that the primaries were won by a pro establishment figure - everyone's talking about Russiagate - what about Demgate - this one is clear cut and not based on supposition and joining the dots and repeating accusations until people stop asking for the proof, Demgate is based on court room testimony and it genuinely affected the outcome of the primaries and quite possibly the election.
If democracy mattered to the establishment, they would have whipped up public anger about this outrageous corruption and Hillary and the DNC would be wandering the political wilderness for a decade looking for a way to regain credibility with the public again.
I like your analysis and in a rational world where democracy was valued, it would be bang on but there is nothing rational or democratic about the 2016 election process or outcome in my opinion. Consequently I don't see the DNC putting forward a genuine change candidate any time soon, regardless of whether that is what people want.
The point is not whether the DNC will put forward a genuine change candidate (they probably won't) but whether voters will stop believing that a change candidate cannot win.
For what it's worth, given the DNC's antics in the last primaries, I think a lot of Sanders supporters will be under the impression that change candidates can not win because they are not allowed to. The republican-lites may or may not believe a genuine change candidate can win but they wouldn't want it because they are republican-lite. All in all, whatever the voters believe about the possibility of a change candidate winning, the DNC have demonstrated clearly that they are not interested and that is what counts at the end of the day.
Interesting article, raising some important issues. Thank you.