Special election voters.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/upshot/special-elections-democrats-turnout-2024.html

Nate "Gold" Cohn with a good piece on how the electorate of special elections since 2022 is different than general elections- a lot of highly engaged, high turnout voters. More Biden voters have turned out than Trump voters in the special elections.

It means you have to be careful assuming general elections will be the same voter makeup.

But as he notes, the true state of the 2024 race is probably better served by the likely voter polls as a result of this difference in Biden support between high turnout versus low turnout voters.