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RE: Delegation Issue
Well, I dunno because the data is not provided. I estimated, and will not die on that hill.
I am confident user retention is <5% because it was ~7.5% about a year ago, and @arcange published this today:
Not a lot of bots make posts, although many vote, and some comment. The useful metric in the graph is active authors, and that's below 10k.
That chart doesn't show retention of new users. It shows active users. For example, if you get one new user per day, each is active for a day and then quits, but one of those users sticks around past the week, a daily-active-user chart similar to the one above would be a flat line at one over the course of the week (or perhaps briefly bumping up to two) but retention is actually 14%.
It is very hard to measure because we don't know how many new accounts created (and did not persist as active users) ever corresponded to users, but we do know that many did not.
The active users present today are the overall users retained to date. There are a few users that are new that graph doesn't show, but not thousands. Even if 10k new users weren't shown on that chart, it would only temporarily raise our overall retention rate to ~2% - until 99% of them left. It does show that otherwise we have somewhere south of 10k content creators presently creating on Steem, which is less than 1% of total accounts created. Many other factors may affect that number, but I reckon it's pretty close to reality.
Of the 1m+ accounts that have been created on Steem, only a bit less than 10k are making posts today, or about 1% of them. No matter how you slice it, that's bad.
No you're missing the point. 10k or so is probably right but 1 million is way off. That number could be 50k (20% retention) or 100k (10% retention) or 200k (5%) but it definitely isn't a million.
I'm personally responsible for mining some thousands (maybe 10k or more I'm really not even sure of the number without doing some analysis) of those accounts with no user ever being associated with any of them (as well as creating probably a few dozen accounts, again with no users), and I'm not even remotely alone.
I actually think the high point in early 2018 probably represents a good fraction of the total users ever active, maybe 30-50%. For one thing a huge number joined during that period alone and for another the high price probably brought back a lot of the users who were here earlier and quit, if only to cash out some stake they may have left behind. So that puts the total at something like 100-150k and the retention at 7-10%.
I'm aware that many accounts are socks. There is no data that breaks that down, and all that there is to go on is how many accounts exist. Ok, so let's assume that you, Bernie, and 98 of your friends and associates made thousands of accounts. I have no way to quantify what the average number of accounts you guys made is.
So, let's just pull a number out of the air. Let's say you guys averaged 2k accounts each, and there's 100 of you. That's 200k accounts that were never any more than socks. Guess what? That is a rounding error in my calculations. The figure of 1m+ was just simplifying and rounding down from 1.2M.
Retention is almost certainly below 5% at this time. It was only ~7.5% YOY a year or so ago, and we presently have ~half the accounts we had then. There's just no good data on how many accounts there ever were made by actual users, or how many remain in operation. Your low estimate is 7%, and my high is 5%.
I'm not gonna hold my breath and turn blue until you agree to 6%. It's not really germaine to the issue, which is that Steem has been so breathtakingly mismanaged that despite the shiny financial incentive to create content on the blockchain, it has abysmal user retention, far worse than Fakebook - which is hemorrhaging users itself.
5 - 7% is higher than I think retention is, and lower than you think retention is, but we're only off by 2 points, and probably agree on why retention is so bad.
I know of 300k accounts that was offered for sale by someone milking the signup page. That's in addition to socks, mined accounts, non-user accounts, other signup milkers, etc.
Anyway, of course, yes, we agree retention is bad. Even if my highest estimate is correct (and I wouldn't have high confidence in that, as it is was always meant as an extreme/unlikely estimate), that is still pretty low.