With the newly released Whitepaper for the DeepOnion project, I think there is enough information out there to make a qualitative future price prediction going into 2018. Speculation is something we all love to do and the cornerstone of making money in the crypto investment world.
What are the important factors to consider?
So what do we need to consider before jumping into predicting a reasonable future price of DeepOnion?! Well, we don't really need to go too deep into the technology except to mention some existing and upcoming features of DeepOnion:
- Privacy crypto with TOR integration
- PoS Staking starting out at 10%
- DeepVault launched and web application planned for Q1
- Android Wallet and VoteCentral planned for Q1
- DeepSend planned for Q2
- Smart contracts and Zero Knowledge planned for Q3
In order to predict a price for DeepOnion what we must consider are, the total coin supply and the possible future market cap of the coin. In order to speculate around this I am using some information that I have gathered during my research. The total coin supply can easily be found at CoinMarketCap.com and is a little over 19M coins after the Airdrop is finished, all the bounties are handed out and developers have been paid. The AirDrop will finish in 16 weeks but the Bounty + Developer fund of 3M each will not be fully distributed by then, max 1M from each of these will be distributed in the coming 16 weeks in order to leave room for future marketing and development. So we can assume a coin supply of about 15M DeepOnion coins in 16 weeks. That is about 3x the current circulating amount. If we assume the price per coin stays the same that is a market cap of approximately 100M dollars. Now what is a reasonable future market cap for DeepOnion in the coming months?
Determining Future Market Cap
Crypto Oracle, a famous Youtuber, mentions shortly in his video that a crypto that allows something to be sent through TOR should have at least an evaluation of 4-500M dollars. Just to put things in perspective, the current Market cap for DeepOnion is at around 30M dollars at the time of writing this article.
From what I have seen so far from the developers I think we can expect most of the features to be delivered according to the time plan and that there is going to be some hype around it before it happens. Just look at what happened to Verge when they announced their "Wraith Protocol".
Since Verge is also a TOR integrated crypto this is actually a very good price comparison and something that we must take into consideration. Verge is currently at a total market cap of around 2,2B dollars. Lets take a while and list some of the other "Privacy Coins" out there to give and overview of a potential future market cap for DeepOnion.
- DASH: 9.5B
- Monero: 6.5B
- Verge: 2.5B
- ZCash: 2B
Now, DeepOnion isn't as well know, or quite as big, as Verge was before it had its big break a little less than a month ago. But I think of DeepOnion as Verge, before it started "breaking out". You can see the timeline I am indicating in the image above. The curves might not be identical, which is the different time frames and they depend on BTC behavior at the time, but hopefully you understand what I want to illustrate. At the time Verge had a market cap of around 300M and the first real "jump" took it up to around 700M. This could be a fair assessment of where DeepOnion is today. Considering Verge is today at 4x this price and the "real market cap" of DeepOnion is around 100M (at least will be in 16 weeks) then a future market cap of DeepOnion would land around the 400M range.
This seems to end up around the numbers that Crypto Oracle was talking about and that would be a fair assessment if I thought DeepOnion was "only" a TOR based crypto similar to Verge. So a careful estimate a price prediction for DeepOnion would land around (= 400/15):
$25-30 per ONION as a careful estimate
But to continue my analysis, personally, I think DeepOnion has so much more going for it than Verge or even ZCash; the DeepVault feature for file verification, the supportive community, Smart Contracts and the community-driven development of VoteCentral.
What I think will happen is that opinion will be split among those who support Verge, ZCash + other giants and those who support DeepOnion. Since DeepOnion also share technology with ZCash (Zero knowledge) some of that market cap might start to consider DeepOnion as an alternative. I don't think there will be a 50/50 split but maybe 25% of Verge and 10% of ZCash holder capital will diversify their investment into DeepOnion.
Assuming the 400M market cap is the "base value" of DeepOnion, Verge has the 2.5B market cap, ZCash at about 2B that would mean a market cap of DeepOnion of: 400 + 625 + 200 = 1.225B dollars. That is a final price per coin of about:
$75-80 per ONION as my final estimate for 2018
Considering the price of an ONION today is $6 I see an increase of about 13x for this coin in 2018 and this is assuming no more cash will flow into crypto during this time. How much that could affect price is almost impossible to predict so I have based my estimate on the information available.
This might seem as a biased estimate since I haven't assumed people moving from DeepOnion to ZCash or Verge or anyone else. But the reason for this is that everyone already knows about ZCash, and Verge and Monero. The people investing in DeepOnion won't move their money there since if they wanted to invest in those projects they already have or find DeepOnion the better alternative.
I hope you found this article interesting and please give your input if on what you would consider a fair estimate of DeepOnion in 2018. This is the project I most believe in for 2018 and I have more than 50% of my crypto investments in this single project. That large an investment portion in one project isn't something I would normally recommend but I have chosen this project to go long on and thought I should mention it for people wondering.
Disclaimer: I am no financial advisor so you should always do your own research before choosing to invest in any project