Price prediction for 2018: DeepOnion

in deeponion •  2 years ago  (edited)

With the newly released Whitepaper for the DeepOnion project, I think there is enough information out there to make a qualitative future price prediction going into 2018. Speculation is something we all love to do and the cornerstone of making money in the crypto investment world.

What are the important factors to consider?


So what do we need to consider before jumping into predicting a reasonable future price of DeepOnion?! Well, we don't really need to go too deep into the technology except to mention some existing and upcoming features of DeepOnion:

  • Privacy crypto with TOR integration
  • PoS Staking starting out at 10%
  • DeepVault launched and web application planned for Q1
  • Android Wallet and VoteCentral planned for Q1
  • DeepSend planned for Q2
  • Smart contracts and Zero Knowledge planned for Q3

In order to predict a price for DeepOnion what we must consider are, the total coin supply and the possible future market cap of the coin. In order to speculate around this I am using some information that I have gathered during my research. The total coin supply can easily be found at CoinMarketCap.com and is a little over 19M coins after the Airdrop is finished, all the bounties are handed out and developers have been paid. The AirDrop will finish in 16 weeks but the Bounty + Developer fund of 3M each will not be fully distributed by then, max 1M from each of these will be distributed in the coming 16 weeks in order to leave room for future marketing and development. So we can assume a coin supply of about 15M DeepOnion coins in 16 weeks. That is about 3x the current circulating amount. If we assume the price per coin stays the same that is a market cap of approximately 100M dollars. Now what is a reasonable future market cap for DeepOnion in the coming months?

Determining Future Market Cap


Crypto Oracle, a famous Youtuber, mentions shortly in his video that a crypto that allows something to be sent through TOR should have at least an evaluation of 4-500M dollars. Just to put things in perspective, the current Market cap for DeepOnion is at around 30M dollars at the time of writing this article.

From what I have seen so far from the developers I think we can expect most of the features to be delivered according to the time plan and that there is going to be some hype around it before it happens. Just look at what happened to Verge when they announced their "Wraith Protocol".

Since Verge is also a TOR integrated crypto this is actually a very good price comparison and something that we must take into consideration. Verge is currently at a total market cap of around 2,2B dollars. Lets take a while and list some of the other "Privacy Coins" out there to give and overview of a potential future market cap for DeepOnion.

  • DASH: 9.5B
  • Monero: 6.5B
  • Verge: 2.5B
  • ZCash: 2B
Now these are the big "giants" in the Privacy Space right now but the underlying technology of DeepOnion isn't worse than any of these: Zero Knowledge of ZCash and TOR integration of Verge. Also has many unique features which I have mentioned. The most important thing behind DeepOnion is a very strong and supportive community and that is what could drive DeepOnion up to clash against the giants.

Now, DeepOnion isn't as well know, or quite as big, as Verge was before it had its big break a little less than a month ago. But I think of DeepOnion as Verge, before it started "breaking out". You can see the timeline I am indicating in the image above. The curves might not be identical, which is the different time frames and they depend on BTC behavior at the time, but hopefully you understand what I want to illustrate. At the time Verge had a market cap of around 300M and the first real "jump" took it up to around 700M. This could be a fair assessment of where DeepOnion is today. Considering Verge is today at 4x this price and the "real market cap" of DeepOnion is around 100M (at least will be in 16 weeks) then a future market cap of DeepOnion would land around the 400M range.

Conclusions


This seems to end up around the numbers that Crypto Oracle was talking about and that would be a fair assessment if I thought DeepOnion was "only" a TOR based crypto similar to Verge. So a careful estimate a price prediction for DeepOnion would land around (= 400/15):

$25-30 per ONION as a careful estimate

But to continue my analysis, personally, I think DeepOnion has so much more going for it than Verge or even ZCash; the DeepVault feature for file verification, the supportive community, Smart Contracts and the community-driven development of VoteCentral.

What I think will happen is that opinion will be split among those who support Verge, ZCash + other giants and those who support DeepOnion. Since DeepOnion also share technology with ZCash (Zero knowledge) some of that market cap might start to consider DeepOnion as an alternative. I don't think there will be a 50/50 split but maybe 25% of Verge and 10% of ZCash holder capital will diversify their investment into DeepOnion.

Assuming the 400M market cap is the "base value" of DeepOnion, Verge has the 2.5B market cap, ZCash at about 2B that would mean a market cap of DeepOnion of: 400 + 625 + 200 = 1.225B dollars. That is a final price per coin of about:

$75-80 per ONION as my final estimate for 2018

Considering the price of an ONION today is $6 I see an increase of about 13x for this coin in 2018 and this is assuming no more cash will flow into crypto during this time. How much that could affect price is almost impossible to predict so I have based my estimate on the information available.

This might seem as a biased estimate since I haven't assumed people moving from DeepOnion to ZCash or Verge or anyone else. But the reason for this is that everyone already knows about ZCash, and Verge and Monero. The people investing in DeepOnion won't move their money there since if they wanted to invest in those projects they already have or find DeepOnion the better alternative.

I hope you found this article interesting and please give your input if on what you would consider a fair estimate of DeepOnion in 2018. This is the project I most believe in for 2018 and I have more than 50% of my crypto investments in this single project. That large an investment portion in one project isn't something I would normally recommend but I have chosen this project to go long on and thought I should mention it for people wondering.

Disclaimer: I am no financial advisor so you should always do your own research before choosing to invest in any project

If you want to know more about the DeepOnion project, you can find more information in these links:
DeepOnion Homepage
DeepOnion Whitepaper
DeepOnion BCT ANN Thread
Join DeepOnion AirDrop

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  ·  2 years ago (edited)

I think it would be wise to consider that DeepOnion will indeed do a 4-10x movement this year. It is still very small but extremely powerful.

That is my assessment as well. Currently, it is small but it is gaining support really fast and it seems only a matter of time before more people will start to take notice. 2018 is going to be a really interesting year for this crypto. I will of course follow up on my price prediction as the year goes on to identify new trends and at which point DeepOnion might be due to "break out"

I see that happening too. at least a 5x from here.
interesting that I made the same calculations estimating at least 75 usd for onion this year...

keep growing

I've just read their White Paper and it seems to me to have a great potential indeed! I defiantly will invest some Gs ;)

If DeepOnion can finish what's on the roadmap and the whitepaper, your estimates are on track or surpass it. If not, it's still near to it as we have observed that the devs and mods are so active in bringing in news on the current developments.

I mean the price of DeepOnion has not even taken off yet, it is still in its very early stage. We will probably see the true colour of it in 2018, it is going to be a year for defining the price of Onions.

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