Fanduel NFL Week 4: WRs to Target

Ownership % is from linestarapp.com for the "$150K Thu NFL Rush ($25K to 1st, Thu-Mon)"
PO = Projected Ownership
AO = Actual Ownership
Only the highest PO players are listed.

Chalk (should score high points, will have high AO%)
AJ Green - $8000 - 19.65% PO

• After the Bengals fired their old Offensive Coordinator, their new one made it an issue to get Green the ball and he pulled off his best line of the season. He has a good match up with the Browns this week and even though they aren't as bad this year as they historically have been, Green should see very similar success. He's averaged 18.5 FPPG in his career against Cleveland.
  Larry Fitzgerald - $6700 - 12.9% PO
• Just like OBJ, Fitz had a huge game last week after being just "meh" the first two weeks of the season. He can possibly mat it this week against the 49ers who he has always had great success against. In his career he has averaged 18 FFPG against San Fran. Throw in he's had 8 red zone targets this year and I can almost guarantee a TD from the future HOFer.

Pivot (a riskier chalk play that should have a significantly lower AO%)
Odell Beckham JR - $9100 - 1.53% PO

• First off, I don't believe OBJ PO will be below 8% this week. He had a monster 24.4 pt game last week against the injury ravaged Eagles secondary and has Tampa Bay this week. The Bucs are giving up an astounding 44.6 FPPG to WRs this year which leads the league from my research. His AO% will be high due to last weeks explosion and this match up makes him even more enticing out of all the stud WRs.
  Keenan Allen - $7300 - 10.05% PO
• Allen has yet to also pull off a monster stat line this year but a home match up with the Eagles is a good chance to do it. Their secondary is still banged up and OBJ went berserk in the 4th qtr last week amassing 20+ pts. Allen of course isn't an OBJ, but he is the #1 receiver in San Diego and gets a lot of targets from QB Phillip Rivers (targeted at least 9 times in each game this year). For almost $2000 less than OBJ and the potential to earn the same amount of pts, Allen is very considerable this week.

GPP (should be a lower AO% that has a chance of scoring 2.5X-4X their salary in points)
DeAndre Hopkins - $7300 - 8.07% PO

• Due to match up and salary, I see Hopkins as having the highest potential this week for a GPP. He's been an amazing cash play this year for a floor of at least 10 FPPG. The Titans are a WRs dream this year allowing 33.9 FPPG and Hopkins has had amazing games in his career against the Titans. That includes a 44.8-point performance back in 2014 when he went for nine catches, 238 yards and two touchdowns. I posted about Doug Baldwin having a great game last year against San Fran in my Week 2 blog and it didn't come to fruition. Hopefully this one does.

Fade (typically a good match up and/or projected to have a good game; avoid at all costs)
Willie Snead - $6000

• Willie Snead returns from his suspension this week and is listed questionable due to a hamstring injury. Head Coach Sean Payton was also non-committal about his role in the offense. If he plays we also have to wonder if he's in decent game shape too. With his salary sitting at $6000 and us not knowing if he's a #2 or #3 WR this week, he's too risky to touch.

Contrarian (typically a bad match up and/or projected to have a bad game; has upside to do the opposite)
Julio Jones - $8400 - 16.35% PO

• Julio has yet to live up to his Fanduel salary this year and his price is dropping because of it. I think this is the week he lives up to it and it takes a $300-$500 boost. The Bills defense has yet to let a WR catch a TD on them this season but their opponents haven't been too intimidating either with the exception of Denver. With a Top 5 WR like Jones in the mix and the Falcons playing at home, I see Buffalo's streak ending due to Jones. This won't be easy of course, but Julio always has a chance to break 20+ pts a game once he gets hot.
  Golden Tate - $7100 - 4.26% PO
  -Tate is ranked tied for third in catches among WRs this year. He should continue building on that versus the Vikings, as Tate will avoid shutdown CB Xavier Rhodes while running most of his routes (78 percent) out of the slot. Tate almost won last week's game against the Falcons on a walk-off TD. I expect some extra fire with the chip on his shoulder this week.

Sleeper (low AO% player that should get 2X-3X point value based on salary)
Rishard Matthews - $6000

• 10 targets, 6 catches, 87 yds, 1 TD. Pretty impressive for a $6000 WR. But the more impressive stat is that it was against Seattle. This was Matthews best line of the season and with him being the #1 WR in Tennessee we may see more of this in the near future. And a match up against the Texans who just gave up 5 TDs to QB Tom Brady would be a good place to build on.
  Marquise Lee - $6200
• Due to WR Allen Robinson being out for the year, Marqise Lee has beat out Allen Hurns and become the #1 receiver in the Jaguars offense. In the last two games, Lee has 11 receptions on 19 targets for 141 yards. The Jets defense has allowed a league high five touchdowns to opposing pass catchers and are tied for third most fantasy points allowed to the position. After a 4 TD performance from QB Blake Bortles in London last week, lets see if he can get his first one to Lee.

Bargain (< $6000)
Cooper Kupp - $5600 - 4.26% PO

• Kupp started as QB Jared Goff's favorite target the first two weeks of the season but was overshadowed in Week 3 by anyone else on the Rams that was eligible to catch a football. Dallas was tore up by Larry Fitzgerald and company last week and they are still dealing with injuries to their secondary. WR Robert Woods could be swapped out for Kupp in this position but I'll lean towards that pre-season and early season connection between Goff and Kupp.
  Devin Funchess - $5400 - 2.58% PO
• I'll make it two weeks in a row for Funchess in the bargain bin. He is listed as a #2 WR to Kelvin Benjamin and has the potential to scream 10+ pts on a consistent basis at this price. A match up against NE is soft for WRs and as long as QB Cam Newton can get out of his funk then Funchess will have a chance to shine.