Fanduel NFL Week 4: RBs to Target

Ownership % is from linestarapp.com for the "$150K Thu NFL Rush ($25K to 1st, Thu-Mon)"
PO = Projected Ownership
AO = Actual Ownership
Only the highest PO players are listed.

Chalk (should score high points, will have high AO%)
Jay Ajayi - $7800 - 10.02% PO

• Just like the rest of the Miami Dolphin's offense, Ajayi was useless scoring a mere 3.5 pts in a loss to the Jets. He should rebound overseas, however, as Ajayi heads to London to face a Saints defense that has allowed the most scrimmage yards (203.3 YPG) to running backs than any other team in the NFL.

Pivot (a riskier chalk play that should have a significantly lower AO%)
Dalvin Cook - $7500 - 5.1% PO

• In his short career, Cook has averaged 20.30 FPPG at home and the Lion's run defense is far from being amongst the best in the league. Last week, Cook had a massive workload with 32 total touches. The match up and the price is good so roll with Cook in some lineups.

GPP (should be a lower AO% that has a chance of scoring 2.5X-4X their salary in points)
Leonard Fournette - $7700 - 6.04% PO

• Fournette has averaged an awful 3.2 yards per attempt in his last two games, but he's also averaged 16.16 pts this season. The Jets shutdown Jay Ajayi last week but I can't see the Jets steamrolling through another opponent so easily. Fournette has a great floor and is solid for cash lineups but I feel as though this is the week he has a chance to break out a 20+ pt game.

Fade (typically a good match up and/or projected to have a game; avoid at all costs)
Todd Gurley - $8000 - 14.12% PO

• So hear me out on this one, Gurley scored an insane 35.3 pts last week so he's on everyone's buy high this week. His AO% will be high and people are going to be expecting the same value as last week which is unlikely. He's averaging a ridiculous 26.1 FPPG but he's playing a staunch Dallas run defense in Big D. Dallas is keeping RBs at a low 78.7 RYPG but are susceptible of their pass catching abilities allowing 7.3 receptions per game for 55 yds. Gurley had his best receiving game of the year last week so he very well may build off of it. I'm not saying Gurley is going to have a bad game, I'm expecting at least 15 pts. I'm just saying he shouldn't be having a great game and you're better off spending that $8000 somewhere else.

Contrarian (typically a bad match up and/or projected to have a bad game; has upside to do the opposite)
Chris Thompson - $5800 - 1.46% PO

• Is there anything this guy can't do? He's scored in every game this season and the pace that he's on is absolutely unsustainable, but the question is, "When will he fizzle out?" Thompson will be facing his toughest defense this year with the Chiefs and Head Coach Jay Gruden has said his workload will not increase despite injuries to the RB core. Maybe that's a good thing to keep him fresh or maybe it's a cautious and naive option to limit your best offensive player. Until Thompson has a bad week, he must be played despite how tough the match up.

Sleeper (low AO% player that should get 2X-3X point value based on salary)
Christian McCaffrey - $6400 - 3.88% PO

• McCaffrey produced nine catches and 16.2 pts in a loss to the Saints and their woeful defense last week. This week he plays the Patriots, who have surrendered an average of 5.7 catches, the second-most receiving yards (84.3 YPG) and 29.8 FPPG to opposing running backs after three weeks. With Cam Newton's struggles, throwing passes to his check down receivers and backs may actually be a part of the game plan.

Bargain (< $6000)
Joe Mixon - $5600

• The Bengals put Mixon in a featured role last week, as he led the backfield in snaps (34) and touches (21) in a loss to the Packers. His match up with the Browns is going to be an easier one with Cleveland allowing 121 RYPG to RBs. If Mixon can get the same amount of touches this game he could explode.