The forecast for the currency pairs GBP / USD and EUR / USD for November 15, 2018

EUR / USD
The EUR / USD quotes remained virtually unchanged at the end of the trading session on Wednesday and reached the level of 1.1308 at the end of the day.

The refined indicators of the economic growth of the Eurozone for the third quarter of this year fully corresponded to the preliminary ones. In quarterly terms, GDP growth was only 0.2%, and in annual terms 1.7%, which was the worst result since 2014. The eurozone economy remains in recession, and together with low inflation contributes to the depreciation of the European currency.

Weak inflation data in the US gave little cause for the recovery of the EUR / USD pair, but the overall trend remains downward. The base consumer price index fell in October to a level of 2.1%. Growth expectations were higher against the backdrop of a strong labor market. Higher energy prices supported inflation, but core inflation has declined, although it remains above the Fed's target level. Despite insufficiently high data, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its intention to continue tightening monetary policy and raise interest rates for the fourth time this year at the December meeting. Expectations of a rate hike and further strengthening of the dollar will limit any recovery of the EUR / USD pair.

In my forecast for Thursday, I expect a decline in the EUR / USD quotes to support levels of 1.1300, 1.1275 and 1.1250.

GBP / USD
Quotes of the GBP / USD pair traded down for most of the Wednesday session, but managed to recover by the end of the day to the level of 1.3000.

The high volatility of the pound was due to multidirectional news on Brekzit in anticipation of the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Great Britain. Following the meeting, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that she had received support from the cabinet in the Brexit agreement. Thus, May will present an agreed version to the representatives of the Eurozone in the near future.

The UK consumer price index rose 2.4% year-on-year in October, as expected. Earlier, the Bank of England in November spoke of the need to raise interest rates several times in the next three years in order to curb inflation. However, the prospects for monetary policy, as well as economic growth, depend on the outcome of the agreement on the terms of the Brexit, which will be held in March 2019. The lack of an agreement between the European Union and the UK will violate the Bank of England’s plans to tighten monetary policy.

In my forecast for the upcoming trading on Thursday, I expect the growth of the GBP / USD pair quotes to the resistance levels of 1.3030, 1.3060 and 1.3090.

ATTENTION! This article cannot be considered as investment advice! Always remember that investments in currencies are associated with increased risk and any investment should be approached very carefully. Just pay your attention that the responsibility for making a decision lies only with you. Please consider all these risks when evaluating currency-related investments. Invest in currency only the money that you can afford to lose.