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Hi Good Question!

First I think there are multiple paths to success, but they are all dependent on the math. I would lean towards popular posters, if they also earn large post rewards, as long as I could vote early. I wouldn’t vote on a popular post after the first couple hours, unless there were very few votes, due to diminishing returns over time and smaller rewards with a large number of voters. I sometimes divide the reward by the number of votes and then multiply by 0.25 to get a starting point for what my reward might be. But this number is always high because voters with large amounts of Steem Power get a disproportionate amount of the reward. Once the reward split changes to 50/50 I will change this multiplier to 0.50.

In general, I say find authors with decent consistent rewards and then focus on early voting, maximize voting power and Steem Power to maximize your curation rewards. You usually find out who is likely to have high post rewards by looking at their past posts. Also note whether their post rewards are consistent or inconsistent, are the reward amounts climbing, are they declining, does it depend on whether it’s a fun post or serious post, each author is different so look for a pattern. I also suggest searching for articles listing the top curators and consider following them. These top curators sometimes write articles about their methods, and you might get lucky

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