Could there be a huge Korean market premium again in cryptocurrency market in the future?

in #crytocurrency6 years ago (edited)

Could there be a huge Korean market premium again in cryptocurrency market in the future?
First, let's consider the definition and simple features of Kimchi premium.

Korean market premium means price gap between Korean and foreign exchange price.
When this is a positive number, it means that the Korean exchange price is more expensive than the foreign exchange. Conversely, when it is negative, it means that the foreign exchange price is more expensive than the Korea exchange price.
This Korean market premium should be 0% when there is no problem with the arbitrage transaction.
However, due to various reasons limiting arbitrage transactions, it can not always be 0%.
According to a recent study by the Bank of Korea, there is no unit root in the Korean market premium.
This means that Korean market premium has a characteristic of converging to 0% at some point even if it deviates from 0%, and it can not move like a random walk.

1.jpg
Source: Maeil Business Newspaper, January 9, 2018

So why did Korean market premium come up?
It is easy to see from the standpoint of supply and demand to determine the price.

  1. On the demand side, the price has risen sharply due to excessive demand for crytocurrency .
    And these price rises were faster than overseas exchanges.

  2. On the supply side, the absence of institutional investors and the constraints of arbitrage transactions make Korean market premiums.

If so, can a huge Korean market premium come up again in the future?
My answer is Yes.
In my view, supply-side problems still exist, but Korean market premiums seem to remain at around 0 ~ 5% due to the lack of new capital inflows from demand side.
If the Korean government relaxes institutional constraints to allow new inflows of new funds, Korean market premiums can be created at any time.

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