Technical Analysis on Bitcoin: The Bears Hit Back

in cryptocurrency •  last year  (edited)

Screen Shot 2018-06-15 at 6.20.45 PM.png

The bears hit back yesterday as the market dropped almost 5-6% in a relatively short amount of time. For over a week now I’ve been discussing how weak this rally looks. Volume remains low, even though we’ve seen a rise in price. Looking at the big picture, we can see each rally has been weaker than the last. Each uptrend has resulted in lower highs, as well as a less impulsive, more sideways trajectory.

I believe we’re still in an ABCDE correction. Even if bitcoin is able to continue climbing in the short term, the volume isn’t there to sustain a long term bull least not yet.

Screen Shot 2018-07-10 at 12.52.35 PM.png

If volume increases, and if we can take out the yellow descending resistance line shown above, that would indicate strength and possibly a more sustainable bull run. For now, price is operating within a wedge between the $6,000-$5,800 support and descending resistance line. As it moves closer to the apex, a breakout becomes more likely.

The 1 day RSI also is operating within a wedge. If the RSI and price moves sideways, they'd approach the apex for the respective wedges close to the same time (end of August to early September).

Screen Shot 2018-07-10 at 1.07.01 PM.png
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I wouldn’t be surprised to see price bounce between the $6,000-$5,800 support and descending resistance line. This may happen for another month or so until reaching the apex. From there, I’d expect a breakout.

The impulsive nature of the latest drop is alarming. It suggests we might be watching the start of another downtrend. I’m not saying that’s is the case, but it’s something to watch out for. For now, I believe bitcoin is in an ABC correction. The question is, where’s the bottom?

These are the 2 scenarios I believe are most likely if this uptrend is to continue.

Scenario 1:

Screen Shot 2018-07-10 at 12.46.09 PM.png

Scenario 2:

Screen Shot 2018-07-10 at 1.16.29 PM.png

I discuss these scenario’s, and MUCH more, below in today's video analysis.

Video Analysis:

Short Term: Slightly Bearish
Longterm: Very Bullish

I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading!


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such a deep analysis mate, i also do char analysis and i have posted some too, but not so deep lol.
good job and keep it up!
P.S. : i agree 100% on that ABCDE prediction, only a small bull run will appear to max 7300 dollar as per my analysis on my profile :)

Thanks @jatinkkalra. We need volume (new buyers) to spike before there will be any long term bull run. I believe many investors are waiting for clear regulatory guidelines before entering the market.

totally agree with this thought, especially for indians where central bank has banned banking services for crypto trading and we are searching for another path to get cash out if we want to, until the court hearing against the ban! :)

bro you may be right , but there is no reason for one commodity to come down to such low in 6 months time.Manupilation is going on in the process and these people wanted to see Bitcoin at $3000.I may be right or wrong , kindly advise

This market is obviously being manipulated. That goes without saying. I don't think it'll drop as low as $3,000, but $5,000-$4,500 is a possibility.

Nice TA, $BTC is correcting but many platform coins are still rising or holding steady. All I can say is #BuyTheDip ... $ETH is congested and $EOS may not meet the hype. Many are looking at the fastest Dapp platform, $GO as the new $ETH ...


  ·  last year (edited)

Thanks @donald.porter. I'm not that familiar with GO, but it looks like it was just released. Seems to be following the typical rise/hype of new coins, before it settles down. We'll see how it plays out. I'm very bullish on EOS longterm. It was way over hyped for the short term. I think some have unrealistic expectations. This is uncharted territory. It'll take time, real world testing and constant updates to achieve the goals many of these coins are aiming for. Coins with a great team, partners and deep pockets will win the day. This is a marathon, not a I'm sure you know.
Thanks for stopping by my friend.

Well... they did have a successful ICO (which I never invest in, I prefer active mainnets). 'Coin' aside, do some due diligence; the Platform is basically Ethereum with the planned fixes for 2020, only they are available Today. As a developer, that's more far intriguing than the 'coin'.



Thanks for the resteem. I'll check out GO.

Thank for your advise for buy on dip , lets hope for the best

  ·  last year (edited)

Thanks for stopping by @online87700.
Just to be clear, I never advised anyone to buy. Other than small scalp/day trades here and there, I'm not entering any more long positions until we have evidence of a sustainable bull run. Unfortunately we aren't even close to that yet. The market looks very weak at the moment.

Bro market is just going for nose dive without giving opportunity to anyone

  ·  last year (edited)

@workin2005 Bitcoin market is unstable and we can't expect to what gonna happen

by the way nice article hope your predictions are right

Thanks @babar005

this time bears will hit very hard and strong , they will take this down to 4900, and by the time it is listed on nasdaq in september , it will be $3000

$4,900 is a possibility. I'm not yet convinced it'll drop to $3,000. There are a lot of buyers sitting around $5,000. If we get clear regulatory guidelines in the next month or 2, a lot of new money may decide to enter the market.

Agree bro , what do u think , new money is not der , bro this will turn when manipulation is completed till the bottom , repeat myself will come to $4900 and then from there journey of $3000 will be very quick

wonderful blog sir..

Thanks @binoy2018

tron is always one of my favourite altcoin

  ·  last year Reveal Comment

Always voting for scenario 2 :D