Bitcoin Technical Analysis: THIS DROP WAS NO SURPRISE
For days I’ve been pointing out the bearish rising wedge that had formed. Yesterday I warned of a possible major drop, saying the only thing holing bitcoin up was the large number of short positions. Clearly that wasn’t enough to continue propping price up. As it approached the apex of the wedge, price broke down very impulsively. While we may see a temporary bounce, I believe we could see lower prices...at least in the short term.
Looking at the daily chart, we can see price dropped below the 50 day MA, but found support on the 21 day EMA. I’ll be very surprised if this support holds.
Zooming out on the 1 week chart, I can see 2 counts I believe are the most likely. The first is more bearish, and has bitcoin in a WXYXZ pattern. This would bring price down potentially as low as $5,500. Here’s how it could play out:
My bullish count has bitcoin completing a WXY pattern, and currently in wave 2, of 5 waves up. Here’s how it could play out:
In today’s video analysis, I discuss a big picture view of the market, price movement in the short term, traps to avoid and MUCH more information not found above. I hope you find it helpful.
Video Analysis:
If you’re viewing this on a site other than Steemit, and you don’t see the above video, navigate to Steemit or TIMM (https://mentormarket.io/profile/@workin2005?aff_id=Workin2005) in order to watch.
BIAS:
Short Term: Slightly Bearish
Longterm: Very Bullish
I hope this has been helpful. I’d be happy to answer any questions in the comment section below. Until next time, wishing you safe and profitable trading!
Workin
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by Workin2005
Both realistic scenarios, IMO.
I'm leaning more towards the bearish count, but I can't really justify that sentiment for any reason other than my suspicion that the players with deep pockets (institutional money?) want to buy still cheaper before something like a physically-backed ETF really shakes up (and wakes up) this market.
It appears to me that the crypto market is neutral, to slightly bearish at the moment, so it seems plausible that a surprise is about to happen for the general market players. Whether that surprise comes as a sneaky change of trend (catching most of the market with their pants down) or another wave of selling (establishing new lows), while I lean on the latter, I'm not confident enough to place a bet on either.
I agree...big money wants to buy a cheap bitcoin before the floodgates open. That said, retail investors are getting smart. Shorts are stacked to near all time highs. I can see market makers possibly driving price up to liquidate shorts...which may actually trigger a bull run. We'll see. Like you, I'm not entering any large positions until there's more clarity. Small scalps here and there, but that's it.
God I can only hope it drops to 5500. Some discount crypto would be great thank you!
I agree. I've got fiat on the side waiting for $5,500. I've got a lot more waiting for $4,500...which I don't expect, but you can't count it out.
I hope that the previous resistance at 6750$ will turn in our support. This could be a smooth run for BTC
That will be a very telling level. If it holds, we could see price recover fairly quickly.
I know, that's what I'm hoping for!
Thanks for your analysis @workin2005. Always appreciate hearing what you have to say.
My pleasure @bananamemos
Excellent call.
Thanks Rolland.
No surprise for me either. All this recent rise with little volume was nothing but a bull trap. I can see a scenario where SEC rejects the Bitcoin ETF and then we see the sub 6000 levels again for probably the last time. There is no doubt the big guys are going to bring this lower so they can buy cheap and once the approve the Bitcoin ETF they are ready to take off.
Absolutely right. We would've seen lower levels a lot earlier if it weren't for shorts being stacked. It's been kind of funny watching this game of chicken between market makers and retail investors. Retail has been getting much wiser lately.
I'm thinking ETF's will get postponed until next year. What do you think?
I think the ETF'S will either be rejected or postponed, but I would guess rejected. I also think either one of these two scenarios will have the same effect on price. The biggest clue that the ETF's are ready to be approved is when Bitcoin hits $5450 - $5775 or I would say $4600.
We'll see. I think most expect a postponement. Which should already be baked into the price and have little effect. A rejection however, would likely send price plummeting in my opinion.
the drop was going to happen like you said but i think the goldman sachs news made this knee jerky market dump a bit harder. ETH is getting crushed.
You're right...the Goldman Sachs news didn't help.