Bitcoin may be in 1 of 2 Scenarios

I believe we're in 1 of 2 scenarios. Both end in roughly the same place, however, it's what happens after these scenario's complete that will tell us which one is correct. It all depends on whether or not we're in an overall down trend, or if we're still correcting from an uptrend. Let me start with the more bearish possibility.

Yesterday I pointed out a scenario in which we were in a downtrend consisting of 5 waves. I outlined a bear flag that ended up being validated. It broke down and started the fifth wave. We're currently still on wave 5, looking for a bottom. Using fibonacci retracement, a logical target for wave 5 is $7,686, the 1.0 fib level. If this count is correct, we would then expect an ABC correction followed by another 5 waves down. While this is NOT my primary count, it's a real possibility and may play out like this:

Now for the bullish scenario, which happens to be my primary count...

I've been pointing out a WXY pattern in my last few bitcoin updates. That's now my primary count. Bitcoin is bouncing on the 0.5 fibonacci level. If it breaks below, the target for wave C would be the 0.618 fib level ($7,816).

Once wave C is complete, that would also complete the WXY pattern. From there, we'd expect an impulse wave up. This may play out like this:

If the bullish scenario is correct, it is possible wave C is already complete. There are some mixed signals. Looking at the 1 hour chart, we can see a clear bearish pennant. Obviously this would suggest another drop is coming.

The 4 hour MACD is somewhat bearish. However, it's showing signs it may want to reverse as it moves slightly more sideways.

The 1 hour MACD and 1 hour RSI both are indicating bullish divergence. If you don't know what that means, it's when the indicator moves up while the price moves down. This may indicate a possible trend reversal to come in the near future. This was also the case with a few other coins today...EOS being one of them.

The 1 hour MACD is also starting to look bullish. Let's see if that lasts.

Finally, I want to end by thanking all those who've been sending me feedback on my analysis. Nearly 95% of it has been very positive and supportive, but I want to try and address the other 5%.

Some people think I'm talking down to them when I explain the theory behind my analysis. I truly don't mean to offend anyone. I'm trying to make my analysis helpful to ALL people, experienced and inexperienced. If you're a veteran trader, I'm sure you'd rather see me just post a picture of my chart with a couple words...short and sweet. Unfortunately, those who are new to trading have no idea how to read such charts. My goal is not to just tell people what the market is doing. I want people to understand why the market is doing what it's doing. How does the old proverb go?
"Give a man a fish, feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, feed him for life".

With that said, it's hard to ignore the other analysts who just post a simple chart and somehow get hundreds of upvotes. I obviously don't do this for the money...I'm very comfortably retired. However, it does feel good to receive upvotes. It lets me know I'm bringing value to Steemit and not just waisting time. So I want to appeal to the community directly and ask what you prefer. If you'd like me to continue to give detailed analysis, please let me know. If you'd rather I just post a chart with minimal explanation, let me know that too. You guys are my audience. I'm very open to any and all feedback..as long as it's respectful.

BIAS:
Short Term: Neutral to Bearish
Longterm: Very Bullish

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Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT financial advice. Please always do your own research and invest responsibly.

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