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RE: IOTA will not last because it will not get collectively adopted.
The big players do need some kind of common payment network shared by all IoT devices. I think the main concern regarding IOTA is the question whether it indeed scales and is secure. The hardening of the network will take time. Only if proven hard (could take several years), it makes sense for manufacturers to develop devices using this network.
Hardening of the network is indeed one of the most, if not the most, important aspects of every kind of payment/transaction system. You're definetately right. But current architectural decisions must be made already in order to secure everything enough and make sure that they can continue securing it in the (near) future.
But, I don't think developers have to create any new devices in order to transact with/through IOTA. They are only required to add some IOTA code to their current device management software and update the applications we use to make it all work. Except if the device has some form of limitation. If they would want to... they could have an IOTA ready device tomorrow.