<...You are simply wrong about your prediction...>

From my limited experience from trading in stock markets I would say this, focusing on prediction is a mistake.

Analyse the chart and define expectations. (for example, at that level, there is strong resistance, price has a good chance to change trend at that level)

Now that you have expectation (not prediction, admit, you can't predict, noone can!) now the key is to watch what will really happen at that level. If you are doing good job at analying charts (training, training and more training!) then you are spotting and defining important inflection points, levels that many other watches.

Now you have a setup. There is a strong resistance, everyone watches it, everyone expects price reversal, but now you watch what will happen and act acordingly. For example, if everyone expects, price should turn "there" but it is not turning, take a notice, this is strong signal.

Bottom line, let markets and price lead you, forget predictions