I developed a guess in the comments of my last post. My worst case bottom is like $45 bil total market cap with bitcoin sitting at $1,800. I suppose if I wanted to be methodical about it, the top was 3k for bitcoin, so a 50% decline from the top is standard ($1,500 for bitcoin), I just think buyers of bitcoin step in before the 50% decline is reached. In the estimate, I had other more speculative cryptos taking a larger beating.
Markets rarely ever reach the worst case bottom, so I would anticipate a floor in the 50 bil to 60 bil range.
A lot of this is gauging sentiments, rather than pricing because sentiment has to change, and until it does the prices can go lower.
I'm weary of a false bottom or a large double bottom at this point. People are so hopeful that when sentiment seems to change, crypto people will just jump on board, and you could have a huge rally back up to something like 80 bil. Yet if there is not enough new capital to sustain it, it should decline off of such a spike, reshapping how crypto people view the market they are in... it's when that mentality of bubble FOMO expectation begins to get weeded out of their thinking that I would be more confident of increases. FOMO works on the way up initially, it creates massive rallies and isn't to be underestimated, but once the market shifts to bear market, it's more about those people with that mentality reversing their viewpoint.
I developed a guess in the comments of my last post. My worst case bottom is like $45 bil total market cap with bitcoin sitting at $1,800. I suppose if I wanted to be methodical about it, the top was 3k for bitcoin, so a 50% decline from the top is standard ($1,500 for bitcoin), I just think buyers of bitcoin step in before the 50% decline is reached. In the estimate, I had other more speculative cryptos taking a larger beating.
Markets rarely ever reach the worst case bottom, so I would anticipate a floor in the 50 bil to 60 bil range.
A lot of this is gauging sentiments, rather than pricing because sentiment has to change, and until it does the prices can go lower.
I'm weary of a false bottom or a large double bottom at this point. People are so hopeful that when sentiment seems to change, crypto people will just jump on board, and you could have a huge rally back up to something like 80 bil. Yet if there is not enough new capital to sustain it, it should decline off of such a spike, reshapping how crypto people view the market they are in... it's when that mentality of bubble FOMO expectation begins to get weeded out of their thinking that I would be more confident of increases. FOMO works on the way up initially, it creates massive rallies and isn't to be underestimated, but once the market shifts to bear market, it's more about those people with that mentality reversing their viewpoint.