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RE: I'm expecting a nice run today (10 second post)
tbh I only ever monitor Bitcoin as a yardstick for how 'crypto' is doing, I never look at anything else like overall market cap etc (you buy and sell coins, not market caps).
Is it ok to give you some 'secret guru' trading advice ?
Looking again, I'm going to say 75 - 80% confident that I'll still get my run before 24 hours has passed.
I don't like using only BTC as a yardstick because its market dominance has varied a lot, that makes its charts unreliable indicators in the medium-term. I like total market cap because it shows overall adoption of crypto and faith in the market as a whole.
I always welcome advice - please fire away.
I don't want to teach you to suck eggs, so this is for anyone else reading this. Don't make predictions, it's a fools game. People will never remember when you're right, but always remember when you're wrong.
You should anticipate and then react, never predict. Let the market carry you into the trade so you get swept along in the current. There's no point jumping into a river that's going in the wrong direction and swimming against the tide, in the hope that the river will change course.
I've made mention of this a few times with my risk reward posts, I can be wrong 8 times out of 10. But the 2 times that I win, I win 40 times what I lost on those 8 trades, so make an awful lot of money. But consider if all those trades I had 'predicted' I shared on the internet, all people would see is me getting it 'wrong' 8 times in a row and think I was terrible... That's why I never make predictions. The proof is in the balance sheet at the end of the day, that's what matters.
It logic terms, change your thinking from absolute statements to conditional ones. Instead of saying "the price is going rise", you should say "if the price does this then I'll buy, and if the price gets to there, then I'll sell". Anticipate and then react to what the market is telling you, never try to forecast it.
Here's a practical example from BTC yesterday. A crypto trader would have the said 'the price is going to rise' and bought. Well, they're well out the money now, look what actually happened, it dropped like a stone.
A Forex trader would say the price (BTC) is clearly in a down trending channel, no bull runs today. However if there is a bounce off the lower support level then I'll consider a buy. Stupid thing to do because it's in a downtrend but it's just an example. It didn't happen anyway, so no trades were taken and therefore no money lost.
Now you might say it looks like the lower channel is now acting as resistance, so if the price breaks back above and retraces back to it, then I'll consider a buy. Wait for the market to tell you what to do, don't guess.
I swear, I'll turn you into a day trader before you turn me into a crypto investor :-)
Where's the fun in that? ;)
No fun, just money.
And look what happened, price broke through resistance and then retraced back, entry at the red spot just like I 'anticipated' :-) Only I didn't, because it's in a downtrend still and I hate crypto lol. I was still right though and that entry was perfect, risk to reward of at least 10:1 ....
Your downtrend, my uptrend :D
Unless you're blind, I think it's 'everyones' downtrend :-) lol
Go on, just admit it, I was exactly right and would have made a lot of money ;-) That's why you should learn to day trade, perfect entries... he he
Zoom out more. It's always an uptrend in crypto land! :-)
Until one of them go bankrupt / get hacked / run away with the money :-)