The crypto bubble is popping hard and altcoins are going back into the gutter led by a bearish Bitcoin which will face its own destiny on August 1st.

Today I’ll touch on my price prediction for BTC in the weeks leading up to Segwit (I), then I’ll share some tips to trade in a bear market (II).

The Price.

Bitcoin is slowly breaking down since briefly touching $3000 about a month ago, dragging down hyper-inflated altcoins with it. Today the price has stabbed through the $2200 support area and may be looking on its way down to the next fib level (the blue rectangle on the chart) around the $2000 area which is the next big emotional number down.

If current support around $2190 holds though, BTC could bounce back to retest the bearish channel at around $2250 (A) where you should have your sell orders ready if you’re looking to get out of the market. It's possible the price will keep bouncing against this bearish channel for a while.

It’s pretty bleak but frankly I am not too worried since, as I said multiple time, I have hedged at 50% in cash a couple of weeks ago, so here I am enjoying the show.

Frankly, I expect a slow grind down with weak bounces at fib levels until August 1st.

Then if Segwit deploys without BTC forking into a million different versions of BTC, I’ll buy back lower with my cash hedge and wait for BTC to recover or pump. I’ll also probably scoop up a bunch of cheap altcoins such as Ubiq or Ethereum.

Now for some tips.

The Tips.

In a bear market, the smart money :

• prepares for the next market cycle by accumulating fiat, not crypto;
• sells on the bounce and not at the bottom.

I should preface this section by saying that a bear market is a natural progression of the market. It is healthy and I dare say expected after a massive bull-run like the one we’ve had.

So instead of crying your eyes out over the death of crypto, picture the bear trend as a long, grindy road to accumulation aka when the price goes sideways and is boring aka the BEST time to buy back and invest into crypto.

Now for those who haven’t already hedged into cash. Your priority should be to:

• get rid of your altcoins except for those that you bought cheap and want to keep as a long term investment. When you invest in a coin the short term price action should not be a concern. Stash those coins of a LEDGER or TREZOR, stop looking at their price every 5 minutes, forget about them and unbox them in 6 months to reap the profit (if any).

• sell the coins you want to get rid of on a bounce and not at a bottom. Usually when a crypto coin drops after a sharp red candle, the price will almost always bounce back up before going back down. You want to sell on the bounce, not on the drop;

• trade for CASH and not for Bitcoin;

• keep some of that cash on exchanges ready to buy bottoms and capitulations.

Again don't trade with money you can't afford to lose or you're going to trade scared and make a million costly mistakes. Right now you should definitely undertrade and stay away from the market while it does its thing.

Trade safe guys, and please follow and upvote if you like the content.

Dan @tradealert