Bitcoin Market Update: Drama Ahead.
Hi traders, today we look at Bitcoin and I am going to share my personal take on where the market is likely to go in the coming weeks.
We'll start with the bear.
The bear.
- On the smaller time scale we’ve broken an intermediate trendline on a rising wedge pattern which could lead to some dump, possibly down to $4000 in the next few days;
- There is also the possibility of a head and shoulder which could mean even more downside and a possible return to $3000 to retest the primary trend line;
Now, let's look at a more bullish scenario.
The bull.
- On the bull side, if we break out of all time high ($4970), I’ll have my next sell targets at $6000 which roughly corresponds to the next fib level up and if you’ve been following this blog, you know that fib levels are very reliable when it comes to trading Bitcoin.
However, there are important fundamental events that you should keep in mind if you intend to trade or invest in Bitcoin...
The fundamental.
- Bitcoin is going to hard-fork on November 18th to accommodate bigger blocks, the hard fork is already dividing the Bitcoin community (Bitcoin Core is not supporting it) so you can expect lots of drama and bearishness leading up to the fork, with probably lots of blood in altcoin and overall great volatility which means great trading opportunities for us traders;
Bitcoin Gold is meant to hard fork off the main Bitcoin chain on October 25th, creating even more confusion around the BTC brand but you know what that mean…. free money for us BTC holder so… yay ?!;
For more on Bitcoin Gold you can read my analysis of it here
My personal opinion.
I doubt Bitcoin will break ATH price but I can see some consolidation happening at current levels as people might want to hold onto their Bitcoin to get Bitcoin Gold on October 25th;
After that, I can see the Bitcoin hard fork drama taking over the news and dragging all crypto into a bearish bloodbath until the x2 hard-fork, followed by a relief-rally after the hard fork;
I doubt we’ll see a lot of action in altcoins before the hard fork (beside the odd crazy market) but I wouldn't be surprised to see the market makers return after the fork and the markets go on another altcoin craze, especially once Bittrex opens its exchange in South Korea.
Strategy.
I am staying mostly in Bitcoin to get my free Bitcoin Gold ;
I am long term on Bitcoin which I initially bought around $500 so not looking to add more right now but rather to sell into strength before we get a bear trend like in 2014;
If you don't hold any BTC but wish to buy I suggest you wait until November and buy a dip if we get some bearishness;
Got some cash onto some exchange to scoop up some altcoins at discount price in case we get a massive dump;
I am researching new altcoins but the market is so saturated with new projects that it’s very difficult to find gems, I am currently reading about NEO and Steem’s Smart Media Token and might give you my opinion on those projects in a later post.
As always, follow, re-steem and upvote if you like what you see
#cryptocurrency #bitcoin #ethereum #steem
Dan @tradealert
Good post. I too expect a lot of volatility in next month, but a bull market before EOY. Thanks for sharing!
Thanks for stopping by @etka :)
So what do you end up buying or selling? =)
Waiting... I am long term on Bitcoin but won't add to my position at this level, if you looking at buying I suggest you wait for a potential dip closer to November 18 :)
I am also very light on altcoin, holding TIME, UBQ, EOS and ART as ong term investment
Don't forget to remind not to leave any on the exchanges :) and have full control of wallets. Also what's your prediction about which fork will dominate in November?
hi @eonwarped, I am not sure if the miners will go for x2 because doubling the block size means loads of costly extra blockchain storage, what I fully expect though is loads of FUD leading up to this with general bearishness lead by Bitcoin, but time will tell :) what's your take?
Agreed on short term bearishness leading up to the event. My take is that one of the coins will dominate (leaning towards BTC), and things will stabilize. Post-fork, the funny thing is that the general desirable properties of Bitcoin will not have changed-- it's drama about the mechanism for making changes to the protocol, not a fundamental problem with the protocol itself. Moreover, HODLers have less to worry about, because they get both coins, and they can just sit and wait to see which one is dominant.
About which one… I think I’ll make a longer post on my thought process, but let’s just say I’m leaning towards BTC (not Segwit2x). My position is that segwit2x is not justified at this particular time, (give segwit time for its purported benefits to materialize), and miners will follow the market (and I think there is enough resistance to Segwit2x that BTC will be just fine in the very very short term post-fork)
interesting @eonwarped, personally I am glad Segwit got deployed, I've noticed faster transaction times and cheaper tx but it might also be due to the general bearishness in altcoins (people sending less BTC to exchanges to buy alts), besides thanks to Segwit we now have the Lighting Network on the horizon which will help retain developers. As far as the x2 component of Segwitx2, i agree with you that it's not a priority, imo Bitcoin has failed as a currency already but remains a good store of value so doubling the block size doesn't really matter :)