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RE: Are we in a Cryptocurrency Bubble?
I think you are mistaken. You don't need a huge number of people to make a bubble.
I think you are mistaken. You don't need a huge number of people to make a bubble.
If it's a bubble it's only because the markets are immature and also because there is no way out of it. If you had 5000 ETH where would you put it if you wanted to make it generate a profit? Cashing out means 40% income tax.
Yes for sure - but I suspect those that are more savvy investors probably have some means to get around the regulations - particularly in non Western countries.
In non-Western countries yes, but Ethereum is very popular in Western countries.
It's popular everywhere now. I think if there was some big crisis the base ether token itself will likely be safe.
Right, but here I see involved in this "bubble" a little percentage of the world population, and I think thats too low having in mind that this technology is going to change almost ALL world population lifes.
Yes long term it will. Long term is irrelevant in bubbles. Look at historical examples like the dotcom bubble. The internet didn't go away - it still conquered the world but when the bubble burst times did become very tough and it delayed progress.
The bubble seems to be caused by over regulation, high cash out taxes, and lack of proof of stake or low risk interest sources. In other words an immature over regulated over taxed market is in a bubble because it's immature, over regulated and over taxed.
If the taxes weren't so high there wouldn't be so much difficulty in cashing out and there wouldn't be a bubble. But when taxes are 40% (income taxes) then you're stuck in Ethereum if you have a lot of Ethereum wealth unless you hold for 2 years straight for the capital gains rate.
Holding doesn't increase your wealth or generate any income. In fact if you just hold you lose wealth guaranteed due to Ethereum inflation which encourages people to put it into ICOs in the first place. Only proof of stake combined with tax exemption will fix this problem in my opinion.
If you compare with Internet adoption I think we are currently in 1993-1994. I repeat: still far far away from the bubble peak of 2000.
We will see. The psychology is what makes the bubble I think.